The 15 Asia-Pacific countries that have signed the new RCEP free-trade agreement are set to enjoy significantly higher growth than the OECD or other emerging countries. Economists at Natixis expect significant international capital flows to these countries and therefore an appreciation of Asian exchange rates against OECD currencies.
“Growth in Asia (the RCEP countries) will be strong. Over the period 2021-2030, potential growth can be expected to be 4% in Asia, 1% in the OECD and 2% for Latin America + Africa as a whole. This should attract to Asia (the RCEP countries) equity capital and also corporate capital. Thanks to this stronger growth, interest rates should be higher in Asia than in the OECD, which should attract bond capital to Asia.”
“If Asian countries (the 15 RCEP countries) are attractive for equity investors, companies and bond investors, then their currencies should be expected to appreciate strongly against the dollar and the euro. This is especially the case as these countries have an external surplus.”