- The US Dollar Index sees the previous day’s relief rally pared back in full on Friday.
- Trump hints to tariffs for EU and Apple.
- The US Dollar Index sees further losses and is on its way to test a fresh two-week low
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, dips further on Friday and erases the previous day’s recovery, trading near 99.40 at the time of writing. The fresh leg lower comes after the House of Representatives passed United States (US) President Donald Trump’s spending bill, now on its way to the Senate. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office revealed that this “big, beautiful bill” comes with a hefty price tag: $3.8 trillion in additional debt to the federal government’s $36.2 trillion over the next decade, according to Reuters.
Markets, and indeed the bond market, have been very concerned about these numbers. The best example was the longer-term 30-year Bond, where yields rallied to 5.15% on Thursday from 4.64% at the start of May, a more than one-year high since the 5.18% seen at the end of December 2023. More concerns could devalue the US Dollar even further.
Meanwhile President Trump came out on his social media platform Truth Social by saying that he is considering putting a 50% tariff on EU goods as of June 1st. Apple might face a 25% tariff on its Iphone if the model is not made in the US. Both Apple and EU equities are diving lower on the back of this news.
Daily digest market movers: Back on tariffs
- President Trump threatens with a 50% tariff on all EU goods from June 1st and a 25% tariff on Iphones if they are not made in the US, Bloomberg reports.
- At 12:35 GMT, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a fireside chat with Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid at the Heartland Health Institute, Benthoville.
- At 14:00 GMT, April’s New Home Sales data will be released.
- At 16:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lisa Cook speaks on financial stability at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference.
- Equities are diving lower, with losses over 2% across Europe and over 1% in the three main US indices.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 5.3%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 28.2%. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have reduced the chances of a rate cut in the short term.
- The US 10-year yields trade around 4.45%, cooling down from their peak performance earlier this week at 4.62%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Looking for the floor
The US Dollar Index is back to square one, flirting with a fresh two-week low at the time of writing near 99.40. With the spending bill now having cleared that first hurdle, the risk of a substantial shock effect in the US debt could further materialise. Even another cut in its credit rating might be under consideration, denting the US image and the US Dollar even further.
On the upside, the broken ascending trend line and the 100.22 level, which held the DXY back in September-October, are the first resistance zone. Further up, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.49 is the next level to watch out for, followed by 101.90, a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level comes into play.
If the downward pressure continues, a nosedive move could materialize towards the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.