- Australian Dollar strengthened in response to the increase in the S&P/ASX 200 Index.
- Australian share market surged to new record highs, buoyed by gains in Wall Street overnight.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.1 and Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.4 in February.
- US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains stability amid the improved US Treasury yields.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains in positive territory on Friday, buoyed by a rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index to new record highs, coupled with gains in Wall Street overnight. However, the AUD/USD pair saw some retracement on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index, which met expectations.
Australian Dollar received a boost after the release of Australia’s Retail Sales and Private Capital Expenditure data on Thursday. Additionally, the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI indicated a slight improvement in Australia’s manufacturing sector, with the February reading rising to 47.8 from 47.7 in the previous period.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges lower despite the uptick in US Treasury yields. The delay in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, prompted by recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the United States (US), has lent support to the Greenback. Investors are now turning their attention to the final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February, which is due to be released on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar improves on higher equity market
- The seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales (MoM) grew by 1.1% in January, lower than expected 1.5% but swinging from the previous decline of 2.7%.
- Australian Private Capital Expenditure improved by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, from the expected 0.5% and 0.6% prior.
- Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged at 3.4% for January, which was below market expectations of 3.5%.
- Warren Hogan, Chief Economist Advisor at Judo Bank, expressed concerns about Australia’s manufacturing sector, stating that it is not experiencing growth. This observation calls into question the notion of a post-pandemic manufacturing revival.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI met expectations at 49.1 in February but fell slightly from the previous reading of 49.2. Non-manufacturing PMI improved to 51.4 from the prior 50.7, surpassing the expected reading of 50.8.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic remarked that recent inflation data suggests the path to achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target will be challenging.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Dean Goolsbee stated that he anticipates the first-rate cuts later this year but refrained from specifying the exact timeline.
- New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams stated on Wednesday that while there remains some ground to cover in reaching the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the possibility of interest rate cuts this year is on the table, contingent upon incoming data.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rate cuts in March stands at 3.0%, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June is estimated at 23.1% and 52.2%, respectively.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index grew by 2.4% YoY in January, against the 2.6% prior, in line with the market expectation. The index increased by 0.3% month-over-month, against 0.1% prior.
- US Core PCE (YoY), the Fed preferred inflation gauge, rose by 2.8% compared to December’s reading of 2.9, matching with the consensus. The monthly figure showed a rise of 0.4% as expected, above the previous rise of 0.1%.
- The preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, slightly below market expectations of remaining steady at 3.3%.
- The preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4) increased by 1.7% against the expected and previous rise of 1.5%.
- US Housing Price Index (MoM) increased by 0.1% in December, falling short of the 0.3% expected and 0.4% prior.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar trades around the psychological level of 0.6500
The Australian Dollar hovers around the psychological level of 0.6500 on Friday. A breach below this level could potentially trigger a downward move in the AUD/USD pair, targeting the area around the major support level of 0.6450 and February’s low at 0.6442. Conversely, on the upside, immediate resistance is observed around the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6526, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6543 and the major level of 0.6550. If the pair breaks above this resistance zone, it may approach the psychological level of 0.6600.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
(The story was corrected at 03:27 GMT on March 1, to say in the second bullet point, “Australian share market surged to new record highs” instead of “capital market”.)
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.20% | 0.17% | -0.13% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.32% | 0.00% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.14% | 0.23% | -0.08% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.27% | -0.04% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.23% | -0.26% | -0.36% | -0.32% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.29% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.13% | 0.23% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.