The month of June saw the dollar weaken against all G10 currencies except for the Japanese Yen, but the greenback has been quite supported in the past few days. Economists at ING analyze USD outlook.
Data in focus amid thin holiday volumes
The Independence Day holiday in the US means the week should start quietly in markets, but US data will soon attract the market’s attention again now that a July Fed rate hike is a consensus view and there is also speculation about a move in September.
Today, all eyes will be on the ISM manufacturing index, although a greater focus will be on the services survey released on Thursday (the May print dropped more than expected). On Friday, jobs figures for the month of June will be published: after the latest comments by Powell, it will probably take a very weak reading to put a July hike under discussion.
On the Fed side, the first event to note is on Wednesday, when the June FOMC minutes are released. The Dollar can probably find some more support this week as markets see more reasons in the data and the minutes to gradually align with the more hawkish dot plot projections.