One of Credit Suisse’s most consistent views over the course of 2023 has been GBP bullishness. Economists at the bank take a fresh look at the Pound.
GBP could well become and then remain among the highest yielders in G10 space
Getting to a 5.75% rate by December as markets are pricing may simply be too slow and the BoE might yet need to start hiking in 50 bps increments again, as it last did in Feb. It’s also the case that GBP could well become and then remain among the highest yielders in G10 space, something which can attract carry-chasing money to the UK at a time of low global asset volatility.
We see room for the broad trade-weighted GBP to test post-2016 highs seen in early 2022 around 2% above current levels.
We lower our near-term EUR/GBP target to 0.8450 and raise our GBP/USD target to 1.2800, levels at which we would finally be tempted to take profit if reached quickly.