The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the Eurozone. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will also be in focus. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes the FX market outlook.
Complete BoJ silence could see another test of USD/JPY 150.00
This week, the US calendar starts slowly with leading indicators today; a largely ignored series nowadays, but one warning of weakness ahead. The most-watched release will be the Q4 GDP report, where the consensus call is 2%.
We also get the BoJ on Tuesday, where inaction is almost certain but a market reaction will be seen anyway. Any hint of concern about market distortion from yield curve control could trigger a sharp Yen rally, but complete silence could see another test of USD/JPY 150.00.
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday, and will do nothing but there too, any hints will prompt a reaction and the same will be true of the ECB on Thursday, where push-back against market pricing seems almost a done deal.
We’ll also get a look at PMI data for January, and from current depressed expectations, any upside in European PMIs can help the Euro push back above USD 1.1000. The same is true of any good news in UK data after last week’s horror show.