- EUR/USD has gone into a consolidation phase below 1.0800.
- US Dollar preserves its strength following the NFP-inspired rally.
- 1.0760 aligns as key near-term technical support for the pair.
Following the sharp decline witnessed in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD seems to have gone into a consolidation phase slightly below 1.0800 early Monday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a bearish tilt and 1.0760 aligns as critical support.
The impressive January jobs report from the US revealed on Friday and Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 571,000. This reading beat the market expectation of 185,000 by a wide margin and provided a boost to the US Dollar. Further details of the publication revealed that the annual wage inflation, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 4.4%. However, December’s print of 4.6% got revised higher to 4.9%, not allowing the soft wage inflation reading for January to have a negative impact on the US Dollar’s valuation.
Early Monday, US stock index futures trade in negative territory. In the absence of high-impact data releases, the US Dollar could preserve its strength against its rivals in case Wall Street’s main indexes continue to push lower after the opening bell.
The European economic docket will feature Retail Sales data for January, which is forecast to show a 2.5% decline on a monthly basis. Earlier in the session, the data from Germany showed that Factory Orders rose by 3.2% in December, compared to analysts’ estimate of 2%, but failed to help the Euro gain its footing.
Finally, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be delivering a speech at 1800 GMT. If Lagarde reminds markets that they are unlikely to end the tightening cycle after one more 50 basis points increase in key rates in March, EUR/USD’s losses could remain limited.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart stays well below 40, suggesting that there is some room on the downside before EUR/USD turns technically oversold.
On the downside, 1.0760 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as key support. In case EUR/USD falls below that level and starts using it as resistance, it could push lower toward 1.0730 (static level) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Interim resistance aligns at 1.0800 (psychological level, static level) before 1.0820 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). A four-hour close below the latter could discourage sellers and open the door for a recovery toward 1.0860, where the 100-period SMA is located.