Forward guidance returns. Is the market listening?
What was a surprise was the re-introduction of forward guidance – i.e., that ‘monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time’.
Investors know that forward guidance is used as a tool by central bankers and it looks like the next nine months will be a game of cat and mouse as investors push for rate cuts and the BoE fights back.
We think data will probably support investors and see upside risks to our year-end EUR/GBP forecast of 0.8700.
GBP/USD should do a little better today in the risk-positive environment. Favour a test of 1.2250 above which 1.2335 opens up.