NZD/USD trims a part of modest intraday gains after softer NZ inflation expectations data

• NZD/USD trades with positive bias for the third straight day, albeit lacks follow-through.
• A fall in New Zealand’s (NZ) two-year inflation expectations caps the upside for the pair.
• Bets for bigger interest rate cuts by the Fed undermine the USD and should lend support.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buying following the previous day’s modest pullback from a two-and-half-week high and retakes the 0.6000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday. This marks the third straight day of a positive move and is supported by a combination of factors.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be underpinned by Wednesday’s better-than-expected employment details, which lowered the likelihood of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The move up, however, started losing traction after a survey showed that New Zealand’s (NZ) two-year inflation expectations fell from 2.33% seen in the second quarter to 2.03% for Q3 2024. This, along with China’s economic woes, acts as a headwind for the Kiwi.

The downside for the NZD/USD pair, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. The incoming softer US macro data suggested that the world’s largest economy was slowing faster than initially expected. This, in turn, fueled speculations about bigger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and triggered a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, keeps a lid on the recent USD recovery from a multi-month trough. 

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. That said, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets. around the NZD/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US for short-term opportunities later during the North American session.

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