Optimism (OP) whales’ spending pattern strongly suggests a widespread accumulation. These investors have accumulated tens of millions of OP tokens in the last two months. Considering that OP price has slumped 25% in the last month, these high-networth investors are buying the dips and are likely expecting an explosive move soon.
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Optimism whales buy the dips
Optimism whales have been extremely active in the last two months, buying dips and adding OP to their already large holding. Between July 1 and September 6, Santiment’s Supply Distribution metric shows that wallets holding between 10,000 and 1,000,000 OP tokens accumulated 42.23 million OP worth nearly 60 million.
It is interesting to see that these whales have been buying with the slump in OP price. Overlaying the whale transaction count metric paints an even better picture of these investors’ interests.
Santiment’s Whale Transaction Count is a metric that tracks transfers worth $100,000 or more. If this metric spikes after a price drop, it is typically associated with buying the dip. On the contrary, if this index spikes after a rally, these investors could be moving their holdings to book profits, which could result in a sell-off.
Blue circles, as seen in the chart below, show clear signs of accumulation and are significant in July. On the other hand, many of these market participants seemed to have booked profits in August, as represented by red circles.
The second aspect of the chart attached below is the Supply Distribution metric segregated by Balance of Addresses. This indicator shows that wallets holding 10,000 to 1,000,000 OP tokens accumulated 42.23 million OP tokens between July 1 and September 6. The holdings of these market participants went from 129.82 million OP to 172.05 million OP, representing a 32% increase.
It is also interesting to note that spikes in Whale Transaction Count coincided with a massive increase in these whales’ holdings.
 [07.28.47, 06 Sep, 2023]-638295739798455153.png)
OP supply distribution, whale transaction count
In addition to the spending pattern of whales in the last two months, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator provides more insight into what to expect next for OP price.
This on-chain metric from Santiment is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors who purchased a certain asset over a particular period. Currently, the 30-day MVRV reads -9.37%, which shows that investors who bought OP in the last month are down by 9.37% on their investments.
Likewise, the 365-day MVRV displays -9.93%, indicating that these investors that purchased OP over the last year are at a loss of -9.93%. Both the short-term and long-term holders are at a loss and are unlikely to panic sell. Combining this outlook with the accumulation spree from whales over the last two months suggests that investors are trying to average down, which is a bullish sign with an optimistic expectation.
 [08.21.49, 06 Sep, 2023]-638295740151577141.png)
OP 30-day, 365-day MVRV
Optimism price likely to breakout soon
Optimism (OP) price has shed nearly 68% of its market value between April and June, creating a range that extends from $0.896 to $2.830. As OP trades around $1.352, investors can expect the whales’ accumulation spree to increase the bullish momentum, leading to a northbound move soon.