- XAG/USD retreated more than 1% towards the $24.20 area, still holding the 20-day SMA.
- USD is strong after the release of June’s JOLTS Job Opening and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Rising US Treasury yields are not allowing metals to find demand.
On Tuesday, the XAG/USD Silver spot price significantly dropped, mainly due to the USD strength. Attention is on labour market data released as investors are modelling their expectations towards the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Meanwhile, the greenback trades strong agains most of its rivals, with the USD DXY index rising towards the 102.30 area.
The US ISM July PMI came in slightly below expectations at 46.4 but higher than the previous reading of 46. JOLT’s Job Openings missed expectations at 9.58M below the 9.62M. Its worth pointing out that Fed Chairman Powell stated that the economy holds resilient, but future decisions depend on incoming data, causing potential volatility in USD price dynamics on data releases. In that sense ADP job employment change, Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be closely monitored this week for investors to start placing their bets on the next Fed meetings.
In the meantime, US yields are rising, which could be seen as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, are rising across the board. The 2-year yield remains steady at 4.88% while the 5 and 10 rates are at 4.22% and 4.02%, respectively, increasing more than 1%. In addition, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors are not so confident about a hike in September as their odds stand near 20% while the probabilities in November top out near 40%.
XAG/USD Levels to watch
As per the daily chart, the technical outlook for XAG/USD is shifting towards neutral to bearish, with signs of bullish exhaustion becoming evident. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) displays a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) exhibits fading green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day SMAs, suggesting that the bulls are firmly in control of the bigger picture.
Resistance levels: $24.90,$25.00, $25.30.
Support levels: $24.15 (20-day SMA), $24.00, $23.80