USD/INR drifts lower ahead of Fed rate decision

• Indian Rupee edges higher on Monday on the weaker USD. 
• The optimistic Indian economic outlook and the continuous foreign inflows boost the Indian Rupee.
• The US Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday will be in the spotlight. 

Indian Rupee (INR) recovers its lost ground on Monday amid the modest decline of US Dollar (USD). The recovery of the INR is bolstered by the positive economic outlook in the Indian economy and the continuous foreign inflows into government bonds. Foreign portfolio investors increased their holdings of Indian government bonds by roughly 50% since the index inclusion news less than six months ago. Nonetheless, the risk-averse environment, higher crude oil prices, and higher US Treasury bond yields might cap the upside of the INR and create a tailwind for the USD/INR pair. 

Investors will closely monitor the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is widely expected to keep rates steady at its March meeting. Market players will also take cues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference, as it might offer some hints about the future trajectory of US interest rates. On Thursday, India’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will be due. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains strong amid multiple challenges

• The Indian merchandise trade deficit widened to $18.7 billion in February from $16.57 billion in January as gold imports surged significantly amid the Red Sea geopolitical tensions.
• Goods imports rose to $60.11 billion in February versus $54.41 billion in January, while exports arrived at $41.40 billion in February from $36.92 billion in January, according to the commerce ministry. 
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index eased to 76.5 in March compared to expectations and the previous reading of 76.9. 
• The preliminary UoM one-year and five-year inflation expectations for March were unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
• US Industrial Production improved to 0.1% MoM in February from a downwardly revised -0.5% MoM in January.

Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee remains capped within a longer-term band between 82.60 and 83.15

Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. USD/INR continues its rangebound movement within a multi-month-old descending trend channel around 82.60–83.15 since December 8, 2023. 

Technically, USD/INR maintains a bearish outlook in the near term as the pair holds below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50.0 midline, emphasizing the downward momentum and hinting that sellers have the upper hand.

The potential support level for USD/INR is seen near the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.60. A breach of this level will expose 82.45 (low of August 23), en route to 82.25 (low of June 1). On the upside, the immediate resistance level is located near the 100-day EMA and a psychological mark at 83.00. A break above the mentioned level might resume its rally to the upper boundary of the descending trend channel near 83.15. The next hurdle to watch is 83.35 (high of January 2), followed by the 84.00 round figure. 

Source