Looking at the G10 currencies in June shows that the Dollar weakened, but that the Yen softened even further. Yen selling is likely to continue in the short term, in the view of economists at MUFG Bank.
A policy shift by the BoJ could result in a considerable strengthening of the Yen
We expect USD/JPY to come under downward pressure from moves by the BoJ and the Japanese authorities in the short term and by changes in the Fed’s monetary policy over the medium term.
A policy shift by the BoJ could result in a considerable strengthening of the Yen. However, in the immediate term, or if the BoJ does not shift gears at the July monetary policy meeting, we see the risk of the Yen weakening further.
The decline in the Yen real interest rate, which has been driving the recent weakening of the Yen, is also approaching its limit. Market proverbs warn of the danger of picking market highs and lows, but based on last year’s experience, we expect the USD/JPY to head toward 150 if it breaks past 145 with momentum. We have therefore raised the upper end of our forecast range.
USD/JPY – Jul-Sep 2023 134～150 Oct-Dec 132～148 Jan-Mar 2024 130～146 Apr-June 128～144