AUD drifted higher following tentative signs of improvement in China data. Economists at OCBC Bank discuss Aussie’s outlook.
Room for gains
Looking out, we still favour AUD to trade higher on of expectations that China growth could stabilise at some point, possibly warmer ties between Australia and China, and a more moderate-to-soft USD profile (as the Fed nears end tightening cycle and embarks on rate cut cycle in 2024).
We have shared that the tourism, education, and property sectors in Australia could benefit if relations between China and Australia further warm up, and this can be a positive for AUD.
Key downside risk factors that may affect AUD outlook are 1/ extent of CNH swings; 2/ if USD strength or Fed tightening cycle unexpectedly extends; 3/ global growth outlook – if DM’s slowdown deteriorates; 4/ any market risk-off event.