Gold trades little-changed on the day near $4,700 after having touched a fresh 10-day low below $4,660 earlier in the day and looks to end the week in negative territory. Intensifying US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of progress in peace talks keep investors on edge. Moreover, reviving inflationary fears temper expectations for a more dovish US Federal Reserve and underpin the US Dollar, which is seen weighing on the yellow metal.
Oil: Supply risks and stagflation fears – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes that Oil prices have risen, with Brent futures around $106, as Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensify. He highlights that futures are underpricing supply risks to both crude and natural gas, and warns that an unavoidable inflation shock and potential stagflationary impact are building for the global economy.
Energy markets underpricing supply risks
“It seems that the lack of talks is gradually starting to weigh on energy markets. Oil prices have crept higher over the week, with a barrel of Brent now trading around $106 in the futures market. Still, we remain surprised at the relative tranquillity in the energy space.”
“As our energy strategists underscored in their latest note, “futures markets are still materially underpricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.””
“An inflation shock seems unavoidable now, and the key question is the intensity and duration.”
“However, the longer the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, the bigger the stagflationary impact will be.”
“Adding further global inflationary pressures, Chinese exporters have begun to raise their prices on “everything from swimsuits to air conditioners,” as oil and oil-related inputs are causing higher production costs across the globe.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Crypto Overview: Zcash, Chiliz, and Algorand extend gains as Bitcoin holds above $78,000
The broader cryptocurrency market retains its newfound risk appetite as Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $78,000 on Friday, despite the US-Iran peace negotiations becoming volatile. Meanwhile, Zcash (ZEC), Chiliz (CHZ), and Algorand (ALGO) emerge as top performers over the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin remains resilient amid the US-Iran conflict
Bitcoin is holding above $78,000 at press time on Friday, up roughly 15% so far this month. The strong resilience in BTC’s price is backed by institutional and Wall Street adoption, increased M2 liquidity, and the possibility that Iran will use BTC for toll payments across the Strait of Hormuz, as previously reported by FXStreet.
CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 60 on Friday, indicating persistent risk appetite among investors underpinned by Bitcoin’s resilience.
Will Zcash, Chiliz, and Algorand continue to rise?
Zcash trades at $344 at press time on Friday, after an 8% rise the previous day. The privacy coin holds well above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $294.01 and the 200-day EMA at $283.87, keeping the broader structure bullish despite the recent pullback from the $375 area.
This positioning above the major EMAs suggests underlying dip-buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates positive but not overextended momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) approaches the signal line as negative histogram bars contract, hinting that downside momentum has cooled.
The next topside hurdle for ZEC is likely to emerge near the prior swing high, close to the $400 psychological level.
On the downside, initial support is reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $294, ahead of the 200-day EMA near $284, both of which underpin the prevailing uptrend as long as they remain intact.
Chiliz trades above $0.050 at the time of writing on Friday, keeping a constructive bullish bias as price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $0.0407 and $0.0396, respectively. The move has also reclaimed the 50% retracement at $0.0476, turning it into underlying support.
The trend momentum remains strong, with the RSI hovering in overbought territory at 71 and the MACD line holding above the signal line, with expanding histogram bars above the zero line, which together suggest that upside pressure persists even as the rally looks stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0572, with the prior swing high area around the 100% retracement at $0.0643 acting as a stronger bullish target if buyers extend the advance.
On the downside, initial support is now located at the 50% retracement at $0.0476, ahead of a deeper buffer near the 50-day EMA at $0.0407 and the 200-day EMA at $0.0396.
Algorand holds ground above the $0.1000 psychological level at press time on Friday. The pair holds a neutral-to-slightly-bullish near-term tone as price consolidates above the 50-day EMA at $0.1024 and just over the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1055, suggesting emerging downside protection after the recent bounce.
However, the broader structure remains capped while ALGO trades well beneath the 200-day EMA at $0.1285 and under the descending resistance trend line, keeping recovery attempts corrective within a still-dominant higher-timeframe downtrend. The RSI at 52 signals balanced momentum after exiting oversold territory, while the negative MACD histogram suggests bullish momentum is tentative.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement at $0.1132, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1317, forming a heavier supply band.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near the 50-day EMA at $0.1024 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1055.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 3.1% in March
EUR/USD fell towards the 1.1670 area level in the American session, following headlines coming from Iran indicating that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, according to Israel’s N12 News. The United States may want to do a deal, but there’s no one to negotiate with.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rejected at 216.00, risks deepen below 215.00
GBP/JPY advance stalls around 215.70, then retreats to 215.00 as risk appetite deteriorates amid Middle East headlines, leaving traders uncertain about the conflict’s outcome. The cross trades at 215.06 at the time of writing.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The GBP/JPY is consolidating for the second straight day, suggesting that further gains are off the table, with the psychological 216.00 level not yet tested. Worth noting that every upside move towards the latter was rejected, with the 214.00 figure capping downward moves.
Momentum is bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though moving gradually towards its 50 neutral level.
If GBP/JPY closes daily below 215.00, the potential to test the April 17 swing low of 214.00 increases. On further weakness, the next support would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.35, followed by the 50-day SMA at 211.98.
On the other hand, if GBP/JPY registers a new yearly high above 215.91, the chance of clearing 216.00 increases.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.50% | 0.17% | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.64% | |
| EUR | -0.50% | -0.32% | 0.07% | -0.39% | -0.52% | -0.39% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | 0.32% | 0.41% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.06% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.59% | -0.07% | -0.41% | -0.51% | -0.58% | -0.45% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.51% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.58% | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.45% | -0.05% | -0.20% | 0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.64% | -0.14% | -0.47% | -0.07% | -0.53% | -0.70% | -0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
USD/TRY: Year-end target at 55.0 – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says their worst-case scenario materialised after the Turkish central bank left policy unchanged, relying on FX intervention and ad hoc liquidity tightening instead of rate hikes. He argues underlying disinflation has stalled, inflation expectations are rising, reserves are depleting, and market skepticism is growing. Commerzbank now forecasts USD/TRY at 55.0 by year-end.
CBT inaction points to renewed Lira pressure
“Our worst-case scenario materialised at yesterday’s Turkish central bank (CBT) meeting: the central bank chose not to tighten monetary policy, relying on the argument that things were steadily improving fundamentally, and that recent geopolitical developments will only act as external disturbances, which should be “watched” for risk factors, but not much else.”
“Core inflation momentum remained far too high, and the improvement in the current account had begun to reverse as policy had been eased prematurely. In that context, the war simply exposes an already weakening framework rather than creating a fundamentally new problem.”
“This situation is likely to be followed by renewed pressure on the lira and more noticeable rate of depreciation. The annualised rate of depreciation since the beginning of April works out to 47%.”
“We expect USD/TRY to reach 55.0 by year-end, compared with market expectations of around 52.0.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies near $78K as ETF inflows persist
Bitcoin (BTC) steadies at $78,000 on Thursday, taking a breather after rallying nearly 6% so far this week, boosted by the strong institutional demand. Despite the positive outlook, traders should be cautious as lingering uncertainty in the Middle East caps the potential for a continuation of the rally at a moment when the largest cryptocurrency nears its overhead supply at $80,000.
Institutional demand lifts BTC
Institutional demand for Bitcoin has continued to support its price rise so far this week. CoinGlass data showed that spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $335.80 million on Wednesday, marking seven consecutive days of positive flows since April 13. If these inflows continue and intensify, BTC could see a further rally ahead.
The Middle East conflict still weighs on risk sentiment
Apart from strong institutional demand, the Middle East’s continued uncertainty could cap short-term risk sentiment among market participants. Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and escorted two of them to Iranian waters, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The attacks came a day after US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports.
These developments dampened short-term risk sentiment, with risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) pausing their recent price surge.
Is BTC market structure shifting to bullish?
The Glassnode weekly report highlighted that BTC’s move back above the True Market Mean marks an important shift in market structure, with price reclaiming a key cost basis level that often defines the boundary between bearish and constructive regimes.
The analyst noted, “This recovery is now being supported by improving spot demand and a tentative return of ETF inflows, suggesting that both retail and institutional participation are beginning to re-engage. At the same time, derivatives positioning paints a more cautious picture.”
“The market appears to be transitioning into a more constructive phase, but one that still requires confirmation. A sustained push through the $80K level would likely depend on continued spot absorption and consistent ETF demand, while failure to hold current levels could see downside moves accelerate given the relatively thin liquidity environment,” Glassnode’s analyst concludes.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC could extend gains if it closes above key resistance zone
Bitcoin is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds well above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $72,576 and $75,435, respectively. Price is also stretching away from the upper boundary of the horizontal parallel channel around $75,680, hinting at persistent upside pressure after the recent breakout.
Momentum supports the topside tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in bullish territory near 65 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) staying positive, suggesting buyers retain control even as conditions edge toward overbought territory.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50% retracement (drawn from the January high to the February low) near $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 mark. Above that area, the 200-day EMA at $82,437 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $83,437 form a thicker barrier ahead of horizontal resistance near $84,410.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the prior channel top at $75,680, reinforced by the nearby 100-day EMA at $75,435. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% retracement around $74,487, with the 50-day EMA at $72,576 and the 23.6% retracement near $68,950 acting as subsequent layers of demand.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Cryptocurrency prices FAQs
EUR/USD: PMI signals and softer pair – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team highlights that Euro area April flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) are a key input ahead of the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with Manufacturing PMI expected to drop below 50 while Services PMI holds at 50.2. The bank notes unusually high uncertainty around the indices and stresses that price components will be crucial. In markets, EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700.
Euro PMIs and weaker currency tone
“In the euro area, the April flash PMI report is released, a key input ahead of the ECB meeting. We expect the manufacturing PMI to show a steep decline from 51.6 to 49.6, driven by higher energy prices.”
“The surprise increase in the headline index in March was largely due to longer delivery times, which pose an upward risk to the headline number again. As such, monitoring the output sub-component will be crucial.”
“The services PMI fell more than expected in March to 50.2 and we expect it to remain at same level in April, as services are less directly hit than manufacturing. However, the uncertainty of the index is unusually high, so interpretation should be more cautious than usual.”
“Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked-in stand-off over the SOH [Strait of Hormuz] dominating the news. Asian equities are down while US treasuries rise a couple of basis points this morning and EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Canadian Dollar bulls seem hesitant as Hormuz risks aid USD and offset positive Oil prices
The USD/CAD pair retreats a few pips from a three-day high touched during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through amid mixed fundamental cues. Despite a temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz supports the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. However, rising Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap spot prices.
US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before it was set to expire, and reiterated that the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports will continue. Iran, on the other hand, has set the removal of the US naval blockade as a strict precondition for resuming negotiations. Furthermore, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said that it fired on three vessels and seized two in the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and assists the USD in preserving its gains registered over the past two days, which, in turn, is seen as lending support to the USD/CAD pair.
The USD, however, lacks bullish conviction amid fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and renewed bets for a rate cut by the year-end. In contrast, money markets have been pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in April. Furthermore, persistent signs of friction between the US and Iran push Crude Oil prices higher for the third straight day, which, in turn, is seen benefiting the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and keeping a lid on the USD/CAD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out in the near term.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the flash PMIs later during the North American session. The data could drive the USD demand, which, along with Oil price dynamics, should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitics, which might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets and contribute to producing some meaningful trading opportunities.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
AUD/USD holds near 0.7160 as Hormuz risks cap Aussie upside today
AUD/USD is stuck within a range as Middle East geopolitical tensions remain high, with US President Trump extending the ceasefire while Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, risk appetite sent the S&P 500 to an all-time high, while currencies leaned into the Greenback’s dynamics, which recovered some ground.
Aussie stays rangebound as geopolitics overshadow key data prints
The AUD/USD trades at 0.7160, up 0.12% as geopolitical headlines dominate the market’s narrative, leaving macroeconomic data aside. Trump’s decision to extend the truce is to allow Iran’s leadership to unify opinions and present a proposal to the US, as he said Iran’s top officials were in disarray, as revealed by Al Jazeera.
The Strait of Hormuz remains shut by both sides, with the US blockade remaining in place and seizing Iran-flagged tankers, while Iran did the same, seizing two cargo ships.
On the data front, the US economic docket remained absent on Wednesday, but on Thursday, data flows normalize. Traders will eye the release of Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending April 18, with economists projecting that 212K people filed for unemployment benefits, up from the prior week’s 207K.
In addition, April’s S&P Global Flash PMIs are awaited, with the manufacturing and services PMIs forecast to expand to 52.5 and 50, respectively.
In Australia, the schedule will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs for April, which in March contracted with the Manufacturing PMI coming at 49.8, while the Services PMI printed 46.3
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7156, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 0.7048 and respects the rising near-term trend-line support derived from the 0.6897 base, now coming in near 0.7057. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests steady bullish momentum without entering overbought territory, hinting that dips are likely to attract buyers while the broader uptrend off last year’s lows remains intact.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent closing area around 0.7156, with stronger demand likely emerging toward the rising trend-line and long-term SMA cluster between 0.7057 and 0.7048. On the topside, bulls face successive resistance from the medium-term ascending structure, with the first noteworthy cap implied by the higher support trend line’s break level at 0.7495, followed by the more significant structural barriers near 0.7765 and the long-term descending trend-line resistance originating at 0.8015.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | -0.15% | 0.43% | -0.12% | -0.45% | -0.80% | 0.39% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.43% | 0.13% | -0.38% | -0.71% | -1.13% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.43% | 0.56% | 0.04% | -0.27% | -0.69% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | -0.43% | -0.13% | -0.56% | -0.56% | -0.82% | -1.24% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | 0.38% | -0.04% | 0.56% | -0.23% | -0.66% | 0.50% | |
| AUD | 0.45% | 0.71% | 0.27% | 0.82% | 0.23% | -0.35% | 0.81% | |
| NZD | 0.80% | 1.13% | 0.69% | 1.24% | 0.66% | 0.35% | 1.19% | |
| CHF | -0.39% | -0.10% | -0.52% | 0.04% | -0.50% | -0.81% | -1.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).