• AUD/USD added to recent losses and put the 0.6400 level to the test.
• The US Dollar traded slightly on the back foot on mixed US data, trade.
• Australia showed a solid jobs report in April. Inflation Expectations eased in May.

AUD/USD slipped under renewed selling pressure despite a continued softening in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to fade part of Tuesday’s sharp rebound, this time retreating below its critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6460.

Traders appear increasingly focused on the uncertainty surrounding the recently announced US–China trade agreement, particularly over its long-term viability and the potential for a broader resolution. Progress on that front could offer support to the Aussie, given Australia’s close economic ties with China.

The Chinese factor

On the monetary policy side, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented a suite of targeted easing measures in response to sluggish domestic data. These included a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate, a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), increased lending quotas, and sector-specific rate adjustments.

China’s latest inflation figures highlight the deflationary undertone, with consumer prices edging up just 0.1% in April from the previous month and slipping 0.1% year-on-year — underscoring weak demand conditions despite modest trade optimism.

Moving forward, the PBoC is widely anticipated to keep its 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively, at its May 20 event.

Central banks’ view: Opposite sides?

Meanwhile, diverging signals from central banks are also shaping AUD/USD dynamics. Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held rates steady, but their policy tones are diverging.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a measured, slightly hawkish stance, signalling a wait-and-see approach on rate cuts. RBA Governor Michele Bullock, however, pointed to persistent inflation and a tight labour market as justification for keeping the cash rate at 4.10%.

Markets continue to price in a potential 25 basis point cut from the RBA at its 20 May meeting, although expectations for deeper easing have been scaled back. Forecasts now suggest a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the coming year — down from earlier projections.

In the US, softer April inflation data have prompted speculation over a possible Fed rate cut as early as September.

Reinforcing the RBA’s prudent stance, April’s labour market report in Oz saw the Unemployment Rate hold steady at 4.1%, while the Employment Change increased by 89.0K individuals, and the Participation Rate ticked higher to 67.1%. Further domestic data showed the Consumer Inflation Expectations eased to 4.1% in May, according to the Melbourne Institute.

Bearish bets on the Aussie kept shrinking

Positioning data from the CFTC suggests sentiment may be stabilising. Net short positions on the Australian Dollar fell to an eight-week low of roughly 48.3K contracts in the week to May 6, with a modest drop in open interest indicating tentative buying interest.

Technical landscape: Bulls’ challenge to break above 0.6500

Clearing the key 200-day SMA near 0.6460 would improve the near-term outlook for AUD/USD, with resistance levels to watch at 0.6514 (2025 high from May 7) and 0.6687 (November 2024 high).

On the downside, the 55-day SMA at 0.6322 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6294 provide interim support. A breach below those would expose the 2025 bottom at 0.5913, or even the pandemic-era bottom near 0.5506.

Momentum indicators are leaning modestly positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 22, pointing to a mild upward trend.

AUD/USD daily chart

Source

• EUR/USD surrenders some of its initial gains as the US Dollar bounces back due to an improvement in US-China trade relations.
• Beijing has rolled back non-tariff measures on 45 US entities.
• The EU is prepared with countermeasures if trade talks with the US fail.

EUR/USD gives back half of its intraday gains during European trading hours on Thursday. Still, the major currency pair is 0.2% higher, trading just above 1.1200 at the time of writing. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recoups some of its initial losses on further de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, against six major currencies, recovers to near 100.85 from the intraday low of 100.60.

During the European trading session, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington is going into a “series of negotiations” with China to “prevent escalation” in trade tensions again. The comments from Bessent have increased investors’ confidence that the world’s two largest powerhouses are actively focusing on reaching a trade deal, a scenario that will lift global economic growth. “We [US] now have a mechanism with China counterparts,” Bessent added.

Before comments from US Treasury Bessent, Beijing suspended non-tariff measures taken against 45 US entities, which it imposed on April 4 after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump on April 2, Reuters reported. The decision from the Chinese Commerce Ministry came in the wake of the agreement between Washington and Beijing for a 90-day pause in the trade war, in which they lowered tariffs by 115%.

Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for April in North American trading hours. Investors will pay close attention to Powell’s speech to get cues about whether the central bank has changed its monetary policy stance after soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April and a temporary US-China trade truce.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD holds significant intraday gains

• EUR/USD surrenders some of its intraday gains as the US Dollar pares some losses. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher among its risky peers despite European Central Bank (ECB) officials signaling that there is room for more interest rate cuts due to decelerating inflationary pressures.
• On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau stated that protectionist policies announced by the US President Trump administration will lead to a “restart of inflation in its economy, not in Europe”, a scenario that paves the way for another rate cut by the summer. 
• Going forward, the key trigger for the Euro is trade talks between the European Union (EU) and the US, which have not progressed in a while. During European trading hours, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told the parliament that the continent is prepared with countermeasures if talks with the US do not succeed. However, his comments indicated that the EU’s first priority is securing a deal with Washington. “We expect that the negotiations will lead to a good result,” Klingbeil said, adding that “we must respond to the US tariffs with unity and determination.”
• During European trading hours, revised Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter have shown that the economy grew at a slower pace of 0.3%, compared to the preliminary estimate and the prior release of 0.4%. Year-on-year, the GDP growth remained 1.2%, as expected. Additionally, the Employment Change in the January-March period has come in higher at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to flash estimates and the former reading of 0.1%. 

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD struggles around 20-day EMA

EUR/USD rises above 1.1200 on Thursday. However, the near-term outlook of the pair is still uncertain as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as a key barrier around 1.1210.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers strongly to 50.00 after sliding to near 40.00, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.

Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.

Source

• EUR/GBP trims recent gains to around 0.8430 in Thursday’s early European session.
• UK preliminary GDP grew 0.7% QoQ in Q1 2025, stronger than expected. 
• Investors brace for the Eurozone Q1 GDP report, which is due later on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP cross pares recent gains near 0.8430 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher after the release of UK growth numbers. The attention will shift to the preliminary reading of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1), which will be published later on Thursday.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday showed that the UK economy grew 0.7% QoQ in the first quarter of 2025, compared to a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. This figure came in better than the estimation of a 0.6% rise in the reported period.  

Meanwhile, the UK GDP expanded 1.3% YoY in Q1 versus 1.5% prior. This reading was above the market consensus of 1.2%. The monthly UK GDP arrived at 0.2% in March, following a 0.5% growth in February, stronger than the 0% expected. The GBP strengthens slightly in an immediate reaction to the upbeat UK GDP data. 

On the Euro front, the rising expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver further interest rate cuts due to confidence that US tariff measures will not significantly raise inflation in the Eurozone might weigh on the shared currency. Financial markets see a 90% possibility of a rate cut in June and see another cut or two in subsequent months.

Source

• Asset manager, VanEck launches VBILL to offer tokenized U.S. Treasury to institutional investors on Ethereum, Avalanche, Solana, and BNB Chain.
• Minimum investment starts at $100,000 for Avalanche, rising to $1 million for Ethereum-based exposure.
• Securitize oversees the fund tokenization and compliance while Wormhole enables cross-chain interoperability.

VanEck launches VBILL, a tokenized U.S. Treasury fund on Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and BNB Chain, targeting institutional crypto investors.

VanEck launches US Treasury funds on BNB, Avalanche, Ethereum and Solana

VanEck has launched VBILL, a tokenized U.S. Treasury fund built in partnership with Securitize, marking a bold institutional move into the $3.5 billion crypto tokenization sector.

The announcement comes amid rising institutional interest in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, despite the sector dipping 0.4% to a $3.5B market cap on Wednesday.

With the launch of VBILL, VanEck aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and digital assets, especially as stablecoin reserve regulations may push crypto-native institutions to hold critical reserve assets in US Treasuries.

“Tokenized funds like VBILL enhance market liquidity and efficiency,” said Kyle DaCruz, Director of Digital Assets Product at VanEck.

VanEck’s VBILL token is hosted on Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and BNB Chain, all of which recorded price gains over the last 24 hours. This move positions the fund as a liquidity and security gateway for institutional crypto firms managing large-scale capital on-

How VanEck is Targeting Crypto Whale Investors

VanEck targets high-net-worth crypto holders and institutional investors with VBILL. The fund’s minimum investment requirements are set at, $100,000 on Solana, Avalanche, and BNB Chain, and $1 million on Ethereum. Other key registration requirements are also in place to restrict accessibility  only to accredited entities and large fund managers.

VanEck’s multichain deployment of VBILL ensures whales across different ecosystems, enlisting by Wormhole for cross-chain interoperability and frictionless movement of VBILL tokens across Avalanche, BNB, Ethereum, and Solana chains.

“With VBILL, our combined efforts demonstrate tokenization’s ability to create new market opportunities with the speed, transparency, and programmability of blockchain technology.”
— Carlos Domingo, CEO and Co-founder of Securitize

According to the statement, a prominent tokenization platform, Securitize will oversee VBILL’s logistics, fund administration, and broker-dealer compliance. 

What’s Next for the Asset Tokenization market?

Despite growing institutional traction, the tokenized asset market saw a slight pullback this week. As of Wednesday, the sector fell 0.4% to $3.5 billion, led by real estate, gold, and Treasury-backed assets.

Asset Tokenization Sector Performance, May 15, 2025 | Source: Coingecko

This cooldown comes as crypto traders favored risk-on sentiment following the dovish expectations that greeted US CPI data released on Tuesday.

However, VanEck’s VBILL rollout sparked renewed bullish momentum for its host chains. Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, and Avalanche all saw price gains over the last 24 hours,

Aligning with Blackrock’s BUIDL fund initiative, VBILL further emphasizes institutional demand from blockchain-native Treasury products. Multiple stablecoin regulations reviews are ongoing across multiple US states. 

With possible requirements for reserves to be held in short-term Treasuries, tokenized funds like VBILL are well-positioned to become foundational infrastructure for the next phase of cryptocurrency adoption.

• The Australian Unemployment Rate is foreseen unchanged at 4.1% in April.
• Employment Change is expected to post a modest advance at the beginning of the second quarter.
• AUD/USD pressures the upper end of its latest range, aims for a bullish breakout.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the April monthly employment report at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 20K new job positions, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades near the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar (USD), flirting with the year high posted early May at 0.6514.

The ABS Employment Change separately reports full-time and part-time jobs. According to its definition, full-time jobs imply working 38 or more hours per week and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally offers higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. This is why full-time jobs are given more weight than part-time ones when setting the directional path for the AUD.

In March, Australia created 32.2K new job positions, adding 15K new full-time positions and 17.2K part-time ones.

Australian Unemployment Rate seen steady in April

The Australian Unemployment Rate has held around 4% since April 2024, easing towards 3.9% in November and peaking at 4.1% in January 2025. Despite standing at the upper end of the range, unemployment levels in Australia are becoming less of a concern.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met on April 1, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.10%. According to its definition, the RBA’s duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.

In its latest meeting, RBA officials noted that “labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.”

Other than that, policymakers stated: “Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Nevertheless, the Board needs to be confident that this progress will continue so that inflation returns to the midpoint of the target band on a sustainable basis. It is therefore cautious about the outlook.”

With that in mind, it seems unlikely that the upcoming monthly employment report could have a broad impact on the RBA’s monetary policy path. It’s worth noting that the central bank will meet once again on May 20.

In the meantime, global trade tensions receded, bolstering AUD demand. China and the United States (US) agreed to drastically reduce tit-for-tat tariffs for 90 days, aiming to clinch, in the meantime, a more reasonable trade deal. It may be too early to claim victory on the matter, but at least the headlines maintained the market’s mood tilted to positive, which should provide additional support to the AUD.

When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD/USD?

The ABS will publish the April employment report early on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have added 20K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.1%. Finally, the Participation Rate is expected to hold at 66.8%.

Generally speaking, a better-than-anticipated employment report will boost the AUD, even if the more significant increase comes from part-time jobs. However, the advance could be more sustainable if the increase comes from full-time positions. The opposite scenario is also valid, with soft figures weighing on the Australian currency.

Ahead of the announcement, the AUD/USD pair trades not far below the aforementioned yearly high. According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, “further AUD/USD gains are likely, but will depend on the market’s sentiment, rather than on employment data, particularly if the figures result within expectations.”

Bednarik adds: “Despite being near a multi-month high, the AUD/USD pair lacks clear upward momentum, and, on the contrary, remains within a clear consolidative range between 0.6350 and 0.6510. Technical readings in the daily chart reflect the neutral stance, as moving averages stand pretty much flat. Still, the pair is currently above the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which develops above the 20 and 100 SMAs, which skews the risk to the upside. The same chart shows technical indicators lost their upward strength but hold within positive levels, also aligned with upward risks.”

“Gains beyond the top of the range within a risk-on environment could push the pair towards the 0.6600 mark in the near term. Gains beyond the latter would be more related to broad USD weakness than AUD strength, with near-term resistance at 0.6630 and the 0.6670 price zone. Support, on the other hand, comes at 0.6420 and 0.6370, with buyers likely to reappear around the latter.”

Source

• The Dow Jones shed another 100 points on Wednesday, easing back toward 42,000.
• A midweek lull in data releases and major headlines is giving equity markets a breather.
• US PPI inflation, Retail Sales, and UoM consumer survey results still lurk ahead this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eased slightly lower on Wednesday, slipping back toward the 42,000 handle as equity markets spin in place during a calm midweek market session. Most of the major equity indexes have clawed back YTD losses, thanks in no small part to a determined bullish tilt in tech stocks.

There is a notable gap between key data releases this week, and traders are getting some room to breathe before the next batch of figures drops. United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data is slated for Thursday, alongside US Retail Sales. Annualized PPI is expected to ease slightly to 3.1% from 3.3%, while April’s MoM figure is expected to tick up to 0.3% from -0.1%. Retail Sales in April are also expected to ease to a flat 0.0% from March’s revised 1.5%.

Tariffs impacts still to come

Market experts warned that this April’s dual inflation prints this week could be the last bright spot on the years-long inflation fight. According to analysts, economic impacts from the Trump administration’s ham-handed trade strategies are expected to begin showing up in the data in May. Even as the Trump team explores pulling back on its own tariff policies, the Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) on most countries will hold above 13%, a number that has typically averaged somewhere near 2.5% in the past. Even with the White House’s cancellation of triple-digit tariffs on China, the US’s ETR on Chinese goods is expected to remain over 30% for the next quarter. Despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that “other countries” will be paying the tariffs, import taxes are generally charged at the entry point into the domestic economy and extracted from domestic businesses, who tend to pass those costs onto consumers directly.

In the face of rising costs being levied directly against the US by its own administration, Friday’s University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is unlikely to show much improvement. US consumers are growing increasingly apprehensive about their economic outlook and income expectations. However, median market forecasts are hoping for a slight uptick in the UoM’s key sentiment reading, with the index expected to tick up to 53.4 from its two-year low of 52.2.

Read more stock news: UnitedHealth Group stock recovers Wednesday downgrades

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones has stopped its early-week ascent, slowing down and resting near 42,000. The major equity index is still up around 1.15% this week and has recovered approximately 14% since the significant drop to the 36,600 area in early April. This week’s topside breach of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 41,500 has shifted the Dow Jones back into bullish territory, prompting buyers to aim for continued momentum to push prices back towards record highs exceeding 45,000.

Dow Jones daily chart

Source

The US Dollar (USD) is weakening broadly into Wednesday’s NA session, extending Tuesday’s CPI driven-decline and retracing most of its US/China-trade related relief gains from the start of the week, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD under broad pressure for second session

“Markets appear to be responding to media reports of US/Korea talks earlier this month that covered the topic of exchange rates and seemed to reinforce market suspicions of a US administration that appears to be leaning toward a preference for a weaker dollar. KRW is up over 1% on the day and Asian currencies are leading gains in FX. The relative performance among G10 currencies is suggestive of mild risk aversion, with notable outperformance from the JPY and CHF and relative underperformance from AUD and CAD.”

“The broader tone across asset markets are confirming the signals from FX as European equity indices trade softly, along with US equity futures. In bond markets the US 10Y yield is pulling back from Tuesday’s high around 4.50% and the 2Y looks to be stabilizing with notable congestion around 4.00%. The signals from crude are not much better, as WTI struggles to extend its recent gains above $63/bbl while copper climbs within a descending channel at the midpoint of its much larger range. Finally, gold is trading within a remarkably tight range and the metal looks vulnerable to further weakness, as it hovers above support around $3200/oz.”

“For Wednesday, the US release calendar is empty leaving the focus squarely centered on Fedspeak and the scheduled appearances from Waller, Jefferson, Daly, and Goolsbee. The tone is critical as we continue to note the clear divergence between Fed speakers maintaining a bias toward ‘patience’ as other major central bank policymakers lean dovish with a clear bias toward further rate cuts. Markets have roughly halved their pricing of Fed cuts by December, pricing just over 50bpt of easing vs. just over 100bpts of cuts as of April 30.”

Source

• USD/JPY attracts sellers for the second successive day amid a combination of negative factors.
• The BoJ rate hike bets underpin the JPY and exert pressure on spot prices amid a softer USD.
• The US-China trade optimism could underpin the safe-haven JPY and limit losses for the pair.

The USD/JPY pair continues losing ground for the second straight day on Wednesday and retreats further to its highest level since April 3, around the 148.65 region touched earlier this week. The downtick is sponsored by a combination of factors and drags spot prices to the 146.00 neighborhood during the early part of the European session.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the April 30-May 1 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, which showed concerns that the US trade policy could hurt Japan’s economic growth. Moreover, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted that Japan’s economic growth is expected to slow to around its potential before resuming moderate growth. Uchida added that wages are expected to continue rising as Japan’s job market is very tight and that companies are expected to keep passing on rising costs by increasing prices. Furthermore, the deputy governor reiterated that the BoJ will keep raising rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. This keeps the door open for further policy normalization by the BoJ and turns out to be a key factor underpinning the Japanese Yen (JPY).

On the economic data front, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in April, and the yearly rate came in at 4%, down from 4.2% in the previous month, though it did little to influence the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to lure buyers as the softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday reaffirmed bets for at least two 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to the 2.3% YoY rate in April from 2.4% the previous, while the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% on a yearly basis, matching estimates.

Traders, however, have scaled back their expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of the US-China trade optimism, which helped to ease recession fears. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he does not see tariffs on Chinese imports returning to 145% after the 90-day pause. This, in turn, is holding back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, a positive risk tone could act as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY and contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Wednesday, leaving the USD and the currency pair at the mercy of scheduled speeches from influential Fed officials.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The recent breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor bullish traders. Moreover, the further slide is likely to find decent support near the 146.00 round figure. The next relevant support is pegged near the 145.40 area (38.2% Fibo. level) ahead of the 145.00 psychological mark. This is closely followed by the 144.80-144.75 area, or the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which, if broken decisively, would negate the near-term positive bias.

On the flip side, the 147.65 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 148.00 round figure. Any further move up beyond the 148.25-148.30 hurdle might confront stiff resistance near the 148.65 area, or over a one-month peak touched on Monday. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and allow the USD/JPY pair to climb further beyond the 149.00 mark, towards the 149.65-149.70 area and eventually to the 150.00 psychological mark.

Source

• Gold price reverses the previous rebound from weekly lows early Wednesday.  
• The US Dollar stays defensive on inflation cooldown amid trade talks in focus.
• Gold price needs acceptance above the 21-day SMA for a sustained recovery.

Gold price is reversing a part of the previous rebound from weekly lows early Wednesday as sellers attempt to regain control amid optimism over potential US trade deals with some of its major trading partners.  

Gold price keeps an eye on trade developments

Despite a cooldown in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, a push back against expectations of the next interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from July to September seems to be acting as a headwind to the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

US CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) last month, data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Tuesday, missing the expected 0.3% growth. Annually, US CPI rose 2.3% in the same period, compared to a forecast of 2.4%.

Following the US-China trade truce, markets are now pricing in only 50 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts this year, with the odds of a 25 bps rate cut in September standing at 50%.

Additionally, markets remain hopeful of further US trade deals with India, Japan, South Korea, etc, after the recent US-UK trade agreement and a 90-day pause on tariffs with China. The ongoing positive turn in risk sentiment, combined with receding recession fears, remains a drag on the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

The US and China agreed that the former would reduce levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period, and China would lower duties from 125% to 10%.

Furthermore, hopes of progress on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks due on Thursday also undermine the sentiment around the bright metal.

Looking ahead, Gold price could resume its corrective decline as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes after the previous sell-off. However, trade talks are likely to remain the main driver amid a lack of top-tier US economic data releases.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks so long as the price stays below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,313.

Adding to it, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned below the midline, at 48.50, having failed to regain it on a sustained basis on Tuesday.

The next healthy support levels are seen at the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072.

On the upside, acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $3,313 will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,430, where the intermittent resistance aligns.

A fresh upside will then emerge, leading to a retest of the record high of $3,500. 

Source

• Silver holds near $33.00, supported by soft Dollar and improved risk appetite.
• RSI flattens despite bullish tone, suggesting near-term indecision and possible consolidation.
• Break above $33.25 targets $33.68 and $34.00; drop below $32.75 may expose $31.89 and $31.28.

Silver price edged up 0.95% on Tuesday as the Greenback finished the session below the 101.00 figure, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies. At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, XAG/USD trades at $32.92, registering modest gains near the $33.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The Silver technical outlook suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with stir resistance found at the psychological $33.00 figure. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite remaining bullish, turned flattish as indecision sinks on traders.

For a bullish resumption, buyers need to reclaim $33.00 and clear the latest swing high reached on May 7 at $33.25. Once surpassed, $33.50 emerges as next resistance, followed by the April 28 high of $33.68. A breach of the latter will expose $34.00.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drifts below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.75, a move towards the 100-day SMA at $31.89 is likely. On further weakness, the bulls’ following line of defense would be the 200-day SMA at $31.28.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Source