• XRP breaks out to $3.38, supported by positive market sentiment.
• Ripple, US SEC file with the Second Circuit Court to dismiss appeals.
• XRP showcases a bullish technical picture with the MACD indicator maintaining a buy signal.

Ripple (XRP) holds near its intraday high of $3.38 on Friday, backed by a sudden increase in speculative demand after the United States (US) Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) signaled a potential end to its five-year lawsuit. 

The cross-border money remittance token shows signs of extending the rally toward its all-time high of $3.66, reached on July 18 and the following price discovery phase.

Ripple, SEC file to dismiss appeals 

Ripple and the SEC have jointly filed directly with the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, requesting to dismiss their appeals. 

According to the filing shared by Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, each party is expected to settle its own fees and costs. The filing marks a major step toward the resolution of the legal standoff between Ripple and the regulator. 

The SEC sued Ripple in 2020, alleging that the company sold unregistered securities in violation of US securities laws. A landmark ruling in 2023 found that the programmatic sale of XRP on third-party platforms like Binance and Coinbase crypto did not constitute unregistered securities. Still, the court found Ripple answerable for direct sales to institutions.

In recent months, Ripple and the SEC have explored settlement paths, especially after the blockchain startup was penalized $125 million, currently in an interest-earning escrow account. 

A $50 million settlement was signed by both parties this year. However, Judge Analisa Torres of the District Court for the Southern District of New York rejected the joint motion seeking to end the lawsuit, citing an incomplete legal process.

The SEC is also expected to provide a status report to the court by August 15. However, the joint motion to the Second Circuit offers insight, suggesting that a resolution could be imminent.

Technical outlook: Can XRP sustain the uptrend?

XRP is consolidating gains at around $3.36 at the time of writing, following a rejection from an intraday high of $3.38. Interest in the token picked up the pace on Thursday, following the report regarding the joint motion with the SEC.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is retreating into the bullish region after being slightly overbought at 75, indicates waning buying pressure, possibly due to profit-taking and sentiment in the broader crypto market.

Key support levels include $3.32, which was tested toward the end of July, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3.07, the 100-period EMA slightly below at $3.06 and the 200-period EMA at $2.95.

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart

On the other hand, the technical outlook could remain bullish if the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator upholds a buy signal, triggered on Thursday when the blue line crossed and settled above the red signal line. 

A daily close above the intraday high resistance at $3.38 could bolster the uptrend and potentially increase the chances of bulls accelerating the uptrend to the record high of $3.66 and the medium-term target of $4.00.

• Gold edges lower after hitting a two-week high of $3,409 on Friday.
• Gold futures soar to record highs after US imposes tariffs on 1-kg and 100-oz Gold bars.
• Technicals show Gold struggling below $3,400 but holding above key moving averages.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower on Friday after peaking at $3,409 earlier in the day, its highest level in two weeks amid a cautious market mood. At the time of writing, the metal is hovering near $3,400 during the American trading session.

The precious metal remains underpinned by concerns over the economic impacts from US tariffs, persistent inflation worries, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower the interest rate in September. However, a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and relatively stable Treasury yields are capping further upside, as bulls struggle to decisively break above the key psychological barrier at $3,400.

While spot prices held steady with modest gains, Gold futures surged to fresh record highs after the Financial Times reported that the US has imposed new tariffs on 1-kg and 100-oz Gold bars. The December COMEX contract surged to an all-time high of $3,534.10 before paring gains slightly, fueled by concerns over potential supply chain disruptions and higher import costs. The bullish momentum spilled over into the Indian market as well, where MCX October Gold futures climbed to a new record above 1,02,000 INR per 10 grams, driven by a weak Indian Rupee, tariff-led supply risks, and robust investment demand.

As first reported by the FT, a ruling issued on July 31 by US Customs & Border Protection (CBP) now classifies one-kilogram and 100‑ounce Gold bars under the tariff code 7108.13.5500, bringing them under a higher import duty. These standard bullion bars are mainly refined in Switzerland. The move is expected to ramp up pressure on Switzerland, one of the world’s largest precious metal hubs, which accounts for approximately $61.5 billion in annual Gold exports to the United States. It marks another blow for Switzerland, which is already facing a 39% tariff on a wide range of exports under the Trump administration’s reciprocal trade measures.

Market movers: US Dollar steadies, yields rebound and risk-on mood lifts equities

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is holding firm above 98.00 on Friday but remains pinned near a two-week low.
• US Treasury yields firm up, with the 10-year steady near 4.25% and the 30-year at 4.82%, rebounding from multi-week lows, capping bullish momentum in Gold.
• Global equities are heading for strong weekly gains, reinforcing a risk-on tone that’s pressuring Gold. The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 are set to close the week up 3.3% and 1.9%, respectively — their best performance since April. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, marking a five-day winning streak, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2%. The UK’s FTSE 100 is also on track to end the week in positive territory.
• US labor market data continues to flash signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 226K last week, higher than both the 221K consensus and the previous 218K reading. This follows last Friday’s July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which surprised to the downside with a gain of just 73K jobs, well below the 110K expected.
• The latest US economic data has cast doubt over the resilience of the world’s largest economy, reinforcing dovish market expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, as soft labor data and slowing growth strengthen the case for policy accommodation.
• On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced the nomination of White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board. The opening follows the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, effective August 8. Miran’s appointment requires Senate confirmation, making his participation in the upcoming September 16–17 FOMC meeting uncertain. “In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement,” Trump said, adding a layer of political uncertainty to the Fed’s near-term policy path.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that the July jobs report has shifted thinking around how the Fed is progressing on its employment mandate. He acknowledged that the latest data suggests labor market risks are now higher than previously assessed. While Bostic reiterated that he still sees one rate cut this year as appropriate, he added that “a lot of data” is due before the September FOMC meeting, leaving the door open for adjustments.
• No major US economic data is scheduled for release on Friday, keeping the market focus on Fed commentary. Later in the day, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is set to speak, with investors watching closely for any additional clues on the central bank’s rate outlook following a week of cautious remarks from policymakers.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD holds above key SMAs but faces stiff resistance near $3,400

Gold (XAU/USD) remains capped below the key $3,400 resistance as bears continue to defend the psychological barrier. After peaking at $3,409 — a two-week high — earlier on Friday, the metal struggled to sustain upward momentum. Price action continues to respect a broader ascending triangle formation, though the structure weakened slightly last week when Gold briefly broke below the rising trendline. That dip, however, found strong buying interest just above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,289, helping bulls regain footing and maintain the overall bullish structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 55, hovering in neutral territory, suggesting neutral-to-mildly bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, with the MACD line holding above the signal line, hinting at improving momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains low, suggesting the current trend lacks strength.

For bulls to regain control, a daily close above the $3,400-$3,410 region is essential, which could open the door for a potential run toward $3,450, with all-time highs around $3,500 back on the radar. On the downside, key support lies at the 50-day SMA near $3,349, followed by the 100-day SMA at $3,289 — a breakdown below which could invalidate the current bullish structure and shift bias in favor of the bears.

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• EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1650 on Friday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum.
• The US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.1650 in the European session on Friday, after closing virtually unchanged on Thursday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook highlights buyers’ hesitancy.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand on Thursday but EUR/USD found it difficult to gather bullish momentum. The sharp decline seen in the EUR/GBP cross, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to cut the policy rate by a slim majority, showed that Pound Sterling captured capital outflows out of the Euro. Early Friday, EUR/GBP continues to stretch lower and loses about 0.3% on the day after falling 0.6% on Thursday, not allowing the Euro to gather strength.

The US economic calendar will not offer any macroeconomic data releases that could drive the USD’s valuation heading into the weekend. Hence, investors could pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials and the risk perception.

At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.2% and 0.3% on the day. A bullish action in Wall Street after the opening bell could limit the USD’s gains and help EUR/USD find support. On the flip side, the pair could stay on the back foot in case markets adopt a cautious stance in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD failed to stabilize above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated below 60, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, 1.1620 (100-period SMA) aligns as the first support level before 1.1540-1.1550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend, 50-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1650-1.1660 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 200-period SMA), 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1760 (static level).

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• Canada is expected to show moderate job growth and a higher Unemployment Rate in July.
• These figures are unlikely to alter the BoC’s wait-and-see stance.
• The Canadian Dollar is regaining lost ground against a weaker US Dollar.  

Statistics Canada will release July’s Canadian Labour Force Survey report on Friday. The market consensus anticipates some moderation in job creation, with the Unemployment Rate increasing. Unless there is a big surprise, these numbers are unlikely to alter the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) wait-and-see stance on interest rates.

The BoC met market expectations and left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at  2.75% for the third consecutive meeting in July, after having slashed them from 5% since May 2024.

The Bank’s Governor, Tiff Macklem, observed the strength of the Canadian economy in the face of global trade uncertainty, adding that the bank will remain vigilant to assess the impact of US tariffs on Canada’s economic growth.

Previous data released by Canada’s statistics office revealed an unexpected 83,100 net increase in employment in June, beating market expectations of a flat reading. Likewise, the Unemployment Rate declined to 6.9% from the previous 7% instead of increasing to  7.1% as market analysts had forecasted.

Later in July, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product data showed that the economy contracted in May, but the rebound observed in some sectors suggests that the GDP might show a slight growth in Q2, which, in the face of the heating inflationary trends, would endorse the BoC’s “patience” message.

What can we expect from the next Canadian Unemployment Rate print?

According to the market’s consensus, the Canadian economy continued creating jobs in July, although at a slower pace. The Net Change in Employment is seen moderating to 13,500, well below June’s 83,100 new jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to return to 7% level after retreating to 6.9% in June. 

The statement of the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that the US economy is showing some resilience despite the uncertain trade relationship with the US, and that the employment creation has held up even though the sectors affected by trade have experienced some weakening.

The bank observed the growing unemployment trend and the softening wage inflation but called for a careful approach towards monetary policy before the impact of tariffs on employment, business investment, and household spending is evidenced.

When is the Canada Unemployment Rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?

The Canadian Unemployment Rate for July, together with the Labour Force Survey numbers, will be released at 12:30 GMT.

The Bank of Canada left the door open for further monetary easing before the end of the year, but hopes of a September rate cut remain relatively low so far, and Friday’s data is unlikely to alter that consensus unless the final reading shows a negative surprise.

The market expectations suggest that the Canadian economy continues to create jobs despite the uncertain global trade scenario, and recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures revealed that price pressures are increasing, which strengthens the case for maintaining the status quo in the next monetary policy meeting.

The next BoC rate decision on September 17, however, is still far away, and Friday’s employment report is unlikely to be decisive for the bank’s monetary policy plans. More jobs data and the Q2 GDP will be released ahead of the BoC’s meeting, and the bank is likely to wait for further input for a better-founded assessment of the impact of tariffs before taking monetary policy decisions.

In currency markets, the Canadian Dollar reversal from late June and early July lows seems to have found significant support, as the USD/CAD featured an impulsive pullback from two-month highs near 1.3900 following a grim US Nonfarm Payrolls report last week.

The USD/CAD is holding at a previous support area above 1.3700, with upside attempts limited so far. With investors ramping up their bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, another positive surprise on Canadian employment would create a certain monetary policy divergence in favour of the Loonie.

Technical indicators are showing a growing bearish bias, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index treading into negative territory below 50, and correlation studies suggesting scope for a deeper reversal, as the US Dollar Index tests fresh lows at the 98.00 area.

Below the support at the 1.3700 round level and the July 28 low of 1.3690, the next target would be the July 23 low at 1.3580 and the long-term lows at 1.3540 hit on June 16. On the upside, immediate support is at the August 5 high of 1.3810 ahead of the 1.3875-1.3885 area (May 22, August 1 high). A confirmation above here would cancel the bearish view and bring the May 20 high of 1.3965 into focus.

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Japanese trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that the United States (US) has agreed to correct a presidential order on tariffs and refund any excess duties collected in error. Akazawa added that there was no disagreement between the US and Japan over reciprocal tariffs.

Key quotes

Does not comment on any difference in understanding with us over tariff stacking.

Regrets stacked tariffs despite the trade deal.

To reduce car tariffs once stacking levies are removed.

Sees US to repay accumulated taxes later.

Market reaction 

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.05% lower on the day to trade at 147.05.

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• XRP claims $3.00 support, breaks above a short-term descending channel as cryptocurrencies broadly recover.
• Ripple acquires Rail for $200 million to drive innovation and adoption of stablecoins and blockchain in global payments.
• Interest in XRP remains largely suppressed with the futures Open Interest down 34% from July peak.

Ripple (XRP) price surges to an intraday high of $3.08 and corrects to trade at around $3.05 on Thursday. The uptick in XRP upholds a short-term bullish picture, mirroring positive sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. 

A report by a White House official has boosted interest in digital assets, saying that United States (US) President Donald Trump will sign an executive order on Thursday, allowing the inclusion of alternative assets such as crypto, private equity and real estate in US 401(k) retirement accounts. Supporters of the move argue that this would legitimize the crypto industry while critics say that it could put US 401(k)s at risk.

Ripple advances stablecoin infrastructure

Ripple has announced the acquisition of Rail, a stablecoin-powered platform tailored for payments, for $200 million. The company described the move as a major milestone in advancing stablecoin payment solutions, aligning with its broader goal of building a digital asset payments infrastructure.

Rail will integrate with Ripple Payments, a platform that boasts an expansive payments network with market-leading liquidity and over 60 global licenses. Rail will ensure that Ripple Payments advances customers’ capital flows with virtual accounts supported by an automated back-office infrastructure.

“Stablecoins are quickly becoming a cornerstone of modern finance, and with Rail, we are uniquely positioned to drive the next phase of innovation and adoption of stablecoins and blockchain in global payments,” Ripple President Monica Long said.

The integration of Ripple Payments and Rail will support a range of services, including stablecoin on/off-ramp, asset flexibility, treasury payments, premium digital asset liquidity, virtual accounts, collections, and enterprise-grade, compliant-ready payments, Ripple said in a statement.

The advancement of Ripple Payments to support enterprise-grade and regulatory compliant flows and liquidity could boost demand for XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin, especially now that the US is clearing key hurdles to support innovation in the crypto industry. 

Interest in XRP remains relatively subdued, considering the futures Open Interest (OI) has declined by more than 34% to average at $7.23 billion from its July peak of $10.94 billion. 

Since OI refers to the notional value of outstanding futures or options contracts, a steady increase often boosts speculative demand as more traders leverage long positions.

XRP Futures Open Interest data | Source: CoinGlass

Technical outlook: XRP upholds bullish structure

XRP price has broken above a descending channel on the 4-hour chart, extending the rebound from support tested at $2.72 on Sunday. The cross-border money remittance token also holds above key technical levels, including the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3.03, the 50-period EMA at $3.01 and the 200-period EMA at $2.93, underscoring the short-term bullish structure.

Investors may consider increasing exposure, citing a buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. If the blue MACD line remains above the red signal line, XRP could extend the recovery, aiming for the short-term hurdle at $3.10, which was tested on Tuesday, and the seller congestion at $3.32, tested on July 28.

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart

If sentiment shifts in the broader cryptocurrency market, recovery could be suppressed and even result in XRP price slipping below support at $3.00. Key levels of interest for traders are the 200-period EMA at $2.93 and the support at $2.72, tested on Sunday.

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The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4% after the August meeting, as widely anticipated.

According to the policy statement, policymakers voted 5-4 in favor of the rate cut after the second round of voting. Policymaker Taylor voted to cut rates by 0.5 percentage points in first round, voted for 0.25 percentage point cut in second round of voting to avoid hold.

Follow our live coverage of the BoE policy announcements and the market reaction.

Key takeaways from BoE policy statement

“It was first time MPC had two rounds of voting to reach majority on rate decision.”

“BoE forecast shows CPI peak of 4.0% in September 2025 (June forecast: 3.7% in September 2025).”

“BoE forecasts show food price inflation peaking at around 5.5% at end of 2025 from June’s 4.5%, part of rise due to higher minimum wage, packaging tax, national insurance as well as higher global prices.”

“BoE forecast shows CPI in one year’s time at 2.7% (May forecast: 2.4%), based on market interest rates.”

“BoE forecast shows CPI in two years’ time at 2.0% (May forecast: 1.9%), based on market interest rates.”

“BoE forecast shows CPI in three years’ time at 2.0% (May forecast: 1.9%), based on market interest rates.”

“Market rates imply similar BoE loosening to May, show bank rate at 3.8% in Q4 2025, 3.5% in Q4 2026, 3.6% in Q4 2027 (May: 3.7% in Q4 2025, 3.6% in Q4 2026 and Q4 2027).”

“BoE estimates GDP +0.1% QQ in Q2 2025 (June forecast: “Around 0.25%”), sees +0.3% QQ in Q3 2025.”

“BoE forecasts GDP growth in 2025 1.25% (May forecast: 1%), 2026 1.25% (May: 1.25%), 2027 1.5% (May 1.5%), based on market rates.”

“BoE estimates private-sector regular wage growth 3.75% YY in Q4 2025 (May forecast: 3.75%); Q4 2026 3.25% (May: 2.75%); Q4 2027 3% (May: 2.75%).”

“Gradual and careful approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.”

“Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path, will respond to accumulation of evidence.”

Market reaction to BoE policy decision

GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum with the immediate reaction and was last seen rising 0.4% on the day at 1.3413.

This section below was published as a preview of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision at 06:00 GMT.

• The Bank of England is expected to trim the benchmark interest rate to 4.0%.
• UK inflation has unexpectedly surged, while economic growth has kept shrinking.
• GBP/USD battles to extend gains beyond 1.3300, may retest August lows in the 1.3140 area.

The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its decision on monetary policy this Thursday, and market participants anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut from the current 4.25% to 4.0%. Financial markets also anticipate seven out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members will vote for an interest rate cut versus just three voting for such a decision in the previous meeting.

The announcement will be accompanied by the meeting Minutes and the Monetary Policy Report, a quarterly release that indicates officials’ economic analysis and the MPC inflation projections, which is the base of policymakers’ decisions.

Finally, Governor Andrew Bailey will offer a press conference, in which he will explain the reasoning behind the decision and maybe offer hints about what will come next on monetary policy.

United Kingdom economic outlook: why it matters

The Bank of England left the benchmark interest rate unchanged when it met in June. However, three MPC members cited “material further loosening in the labour market”, subdued consumer demand, and pay deals near sustainable rates as a reason to trim rates.

Since then, macroeconomic data has been quite worrisome. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.3% decline in April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The report also showed that “Of the three main sectors in May 2025, production output was the largest contributor to the monthly GDP fall, decreasing by 0.9%. Construction output also decreased by 0.6%. These figures were partially offset by an increase of 0.1% in services output in May 2025.” It is worth reminding ourselves that the first estimate of the second quarter GDP will be released on August 14.

Meanwhile, inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) has risen to its highest level in over a year in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.6% on a yearly basis, after posting 3.4% YoY in May. Meanwhile, the core annual CPI printed at 3.7%, up from the 3.5% posted in May. The ONS indicated that food prices rose in June by the most since February 2024, while also indicating that services inflation remains at 4.7%.

Finally, employment-related data has been less worrisome as the labor market keeps loosening. The Unemployment Rate stood at 4.7% in April, increasing from the 4.4% posted at the beginning of the year.

BoE officials will have to assess whether slowing growth or rising inflationary pressures weigh more. Nevertheless, Governor Andrew Bailey said, “I really do believe the path is downward” on interest rates in an interview with the Times.

Regarding ecocoming projections, policymakers may upwardly review inflation perspectives and downwardly review growth-related ones.

How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?

The MPC has no easy task, and voting will likely be split. Generally speaking, market players anticipate an interest rate cut, which will be no surprise. The split vote among MPC members could shake the Sterling Pound, alongside discouraging revisions to growth and inflation. Market players will also pay close attention to Bailey’s words. The more hawkish despite the dismal macro picture, the less likely the GBP is to fall.

Ahead of the announcement, the GBP/USD pair trades within a tight range just above the 1.3300 mark, pressuring the upper end of the range with a modest upward bias. Still, the expected BoE announcement seems more of a downward risk for the pair.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The GBP/USD pair hover around its weekly peak in the 1.3330 region, without any technical sign of additional gains ahead. The daily chart shows a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides resistance at around 1.3350, while the 20 SMA maintains its bearish slope at around 1.3400. The pair could turn bullish once beyond the latter, an unlikely scenario with the BoE’s expected announcement.”

Bednarik adds: “On the downside, the 1.3250 area is the one to watch, as once below it GBP/USD may turn bearish. Interim support comes at 1.3200 ahead of the August monthly low at 1.3141.”

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• The Australian Dollar advances after the release of domestic trade balance data on Thursday.
• Australia’s Trade Surplus widened to 5,365 million MoM in June, against the expected 3,250 million.
• Trump warned that he may impose additional tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian Oil.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following a 0.5% gain in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair gains ground following the release of trade balance data.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s Trade Surplus increased to 5,365 million month-over-month in June, surpassing the expected 3,250 million and the previous 1,604 million (revised from 2,238 million). The monthly Exports rose by 6.0% in June, while Imports fell by 3.1%.

US President Donald Trump warned China, Australia’s close trading partner, that he could impose further tariffs similar to the 25% levies announced earlier on India over its Russian Oil purchases, depending on what happens, per Reuters.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut next week, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.60%. The case for easing has grown stronger as core inflation slowed to 2.7% in June, well within the RBA’s 2–3% target, along with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth.

Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar trims recent gains

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is appreciating and trading around 98.30 at the time of writing. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims will likely be eyed later on Thursday.
• US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will appoint the Fed’s Chair and Kugler’s replacement by the end of the week, and confirmed his choices for Chairman, including White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and two other people. Trump also confirmed that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not his choice for the Fed’s Chair.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI declined to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in the previous month and falling short of the expected reading of 51.5. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Prices Paid advanced to 69.9 from 67.5, the Employment Index ticked lower to 46.4 from 47.2, and the New Orders Index deflated to 50.3 from 51.3.
• The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in September, following weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook.
• The US and China were unable to reach an agreement on extending the 90-day tariff pause during their latest round of talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The current pause is set to expire on August 12, with the final decision resting in the hands of US President Donald Trump. In the meantime, US tariffs have been lowered from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs have been reduced from 125% to 10%.
• China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index unexpectedly jumped to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. The market forecast was for a 50.2 print in the reported period.
• Australia’s Ai Group Manufacturing PMI rose by 4.9 points to -23.9 in July, indicating a slight improvement but still pointing to a deep contraction in the sector. Meanwhile, the Ai Group Australian Industry Index, a key gauge of private-sector activity, climbed 5.8 points to -3.2, its strongest reading in three years, continuing the gradual recovery trend that began in mid-2024.
• Australia was spared from the latest United States (US) tariff hikes, indicating that President Donald Trump had left the 10% baseline tariffs on Australian goods unchanged.

Australian Dollar holds position near 0.6500 after breaking above nine-day EMA

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Thursday. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a bearish bias, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding below the 50 level. However, the pair has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling short-term momentum is stronger.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the 50-day EMA at 0.6495, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 0.6494. A break below these levels could weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the two-month low of 0.6419, which was recorded on August 1, followed by a three-month low at 0.6372, recorded on June 23.

The AUD/USD pair could approach the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the nine-month high at 0.6625, which was recorded on July 24.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

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