- The Minutes of the Fed’s June 17-18 policy meeting will be published on Wednesday.
- Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to keep policy settings unchanged will be scrutinized by investors.
- Markets see virtually no chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in July.
The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June 17-18 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Policymakers decided to maintain the policy rate at the range of 4.25%-4.5%, but the revised Summary of Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers were projecting two 25 basis-point (bps) rate cuts in 2025.
Jerome Powell and co decided to hold policy settings unchanged after June meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the June meeting. In the policy statement, the US central bank reiterated that inflation was still “somewhat elevated,” while labor market conditions remained solid with a low unemployment rate.
The SEP highlighted that policymakers still see a 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025 but now forecast only a 25 bps cut in 2026, compared to the 50 bps projected in March’s SEP. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that they don’t need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments to the policy.
Although several Fed officials noted that they are open to the idea of lowering the interest rate in July, the upbeat June employment report reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to wait until September to ease the policy. The Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in May and Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000.
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Jul 09, 2025 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: –
Previous: –
Source: Federal Reserve
When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?
The FOMC will release the minutes of the June 17-18 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Investors will scrutinize the discussions surrounding the policy outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see virtually no chance of a rate cut in July and price in about a 36% probability of another policy hold in September. In case the publication shows that policymakers are unwilling to wait until after September to ease the policy, the US Dollar (USD) could come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the other hand, the USD could remain resilient against its rivals if the document suggests that policymakers could look to delay rate cuts in case US President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions are seen as inflationary.
The White House announced late Monday that President Trump signed an executive order to push the deadline for implementing tariffs to August 1. However, letters sent out to trading partners by US President Donald Trump showed that they will be imposing 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea. “If, for any reason, you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added on to the 25% that we charge,” Trump said in letters shared on Truth Social.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief outlook for the USD Index:
“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 50 despite recovering steadily since early July. Additionally, the USD Index is yet to make a daily close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that another leg higher is needed to convince buyers.”
“On the upside, 97.80 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the mid-May–July downtrend, 20-day SMA, upper limit of the ascending regression channel) aligns as a key resistance level ahead of 98.50 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 99.00-99.10 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement). Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 96.80 (mid-point of the ascending channel), 96.30 (end-point of the downtrend) and 95.80 (lower limit of the ascending channel).
Dot Plot FAQs
The “Dot Plot” is the popular name of the interest-rate projections by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implements monetary policy. These are published in the Summary of Economic Projections, a report in which FOMC members also release their individual projections on economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation for the current year and the next few ones. The document consists of a chart plotting interest-rate projections, with each FOMC member’s forecast represented by a dot. The Fed also adds a table summarizing the range of forecasts and the median for each indicator. This makes it easier for market participants to see how policymakers expect the US economy to perform in the near, medium and long term.
The US Federal Reserve publishes the “Dot Plot” once every other meeting, or in four of the eight yearly scheduled meetings. The Summary of Economic Projections report is published along with the monetary policy decision.
The “Dot Plot” gives a comprehensive insight into the expectations from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. As projections reflect each official’s projection for interest rates at the end of each year, it is considered a key forward-looking indicator. By looking at the “Dot Plot” and comparing the data to current interest-rate levels, market participants can see where policymakers expect rates to head to and the overall direction of monetary policy. As projections are released quarterly, the “Dot Plot” is widely used as a guide to figure out the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot.
The most market-moving data in the “Dot Plot” is the projection of the federal funds rate. Any change compared with previous projections is likely to influence the US Dollar (USD) valuation. Generally, if the “Dot Plot” shows that policymakers expect higher interest rates in the near term, this tends to be bullish for USD. Likewise, if projections point to lower rates ahead, the USD is likely to weaken.