Ripple (XRP) is struggling to hold above $1.42 short-term support at the time of writing on Thursday, down roughly 5% from the monthly peak around $1.51. The remittance token’s recovery appears lock-step, as risk-off sentiment and softening institutional demand weigh.
Why XRP could be undervalued
The XRP on-chain Z-Score metric extended its decline to 0.04 on Wednesday, remaining below the token’s realized value. According to Glassnode, the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score evaluates whether XRP is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair value.”
When XRP’s market value, calculated by multiplying the spot price by supply, is lower than the realized value, measured by cumulative capital inflows into the asset, it signals a local market bottom.
On the other hand, a market value above the realized value often signals a local market top. The chart below shows the MVRV Z-Score holding persistently slightly above the XRP fair value since early February, suggesting possible undervaluation and a likely local bottom.
Still, XRP lacks the tailwind to trigger a reversal, despite being undervalued, especially amid faltering demand for spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Institutional activity remained muted on Wednesday, with US-listed ETFs not recording any flows. SoSoValue data shows cumulative inflows steady at $1.36 billion, while net assets declined slightly to $1.14 billion, from $1.16 billion the previous day.
Technical analysis: XRP stages fresh recovery bid
XRP trades above $1.42, holding between major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the 50-day EMA at $1.42 and the 100-day EMA at $1.49, leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral. The 200-day EMA, higher up at $1.70, continues to frame the broader bearish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 on the daily chart and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint at modest, but not decisive, bullish momentum as price consolidates near the current range.
On the topside, immediate resistance lies at $1.45, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.49 and the downward resistance trendline near $1.50. Moreover, the 200-day EMA at $1.70 serves as a more distant cap if buyers extend the recovery. On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.42, reinforced by the latest Parabolic SAR print at $1.40. A sustained break below these levels would expose the pair to deeper corrective pressure despite the current neutral tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)