The broader cryptocurrency market whipsaws as Tuesday’s 08:00 PM ET deadline imposed by US President Donald Trump on Iran nears, sending Bitcoin below $69,000. Liquidations over the last 24 hours reached $230 million, while Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, Avalanche, and Pepe are leading the losses.
Gold remains depressed as Hormuz standoff supports USD amid hawkish Fed rate bets
Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through selling and trades in the previous day’s broader range. Hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran are fading ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This benefits the US Dollar’s (USD) global reserve currency status and exerts some pressure on the commodity. Apart from this, expectations for higher interest rates globally turn out to be another factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.
Investors now seem convinced that the war-driven surge in energy prices would revive inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, Crude Oil prices advanced to a four-week top after Trump heightened his rhetoric against Iran and threatened to decimate civilian infrastructure if the deadline passed without a deal. In response, the advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasized that Iran will not back down and said that Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday that the Services PMI fell short of market expectations and eased to 54 in March from 56.1 in the previous month. pointing to some loss of momentum. Additional details of the report revealed that inflation pressures gathered traction, with the Prices Paid Index edging higher to 70.7 from 63. This comes on top of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday, which signaled a resilient labor market, and boosted bets that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer to combat inflation. The outlook, in turn, favors the USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Traders now look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bears might await a break below $4,600 before positioning for further losses
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAU/USD pair holds below the downward-sloping 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative with the line below the signal and hovering around the zero line, which suggests lingering downside pressure but without strong momentum. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 shows neutral momentum, aligning with a consolidative tone within a broader downside context.
Immediate resistance emerges near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall, at $4,607, and a sustained break above would open the way toward the $4,763, or the 50.0% retracement level. As long as the Gold price trades below that latter barrier and the distant 200-period SMA, rallies are exposed to selling on strength. On the downside, initial support is seen around the recent $4,600 swing area, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% Fibo. The retracement level is the $4,416 as the next bearish target, where dip-buying interest could attempt to stabilize the previous metal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (47) in March
GBP/USD remains well bid in line with the rest of its risk-linked peers, orbiting around the 1.3230 zone as Monday’s NA session draws to a close. In the meantime, Cable’s rebound comes amid a generalised improvement in the risk complex, although volatility on the geopolitical landscape remains far from abated.
Gold slips from $4,700 as Iran deal doubts boost oil, Dollar
Gold (XAU/USD) price recoiled during the North American session on Monday after hitting a daily high of $4,706, but news that an agreement between the US and Iran seems unlikely, along with military preparations for potential strikes, drove the yellow metal lower.
Bullion eases as war risks persist and Fed hold bets stay firm
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,652, weighed down by the rise in WTI, which is up 1,40% at $113.64 per barrel. In addition, the Greenback is trimming some of its earlier losses, back above the 100.00 handle, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the US Dollar’s performance against six others, falls 0.19%. US Treasury yields are trimming some of their earlier losses, with the 10-year T-note yielding 4.337%.
The Wall Street Journal revealed that the US military is “making preparations for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran,” according to multiple US officials. Recently, US President Donald Trump said that “Iran can be taken out in one night, might be Tuesday night.”
Trump’s initial deadline was April 6, but he delayed the attacks to April 7 at 8:00 PM ET if Iran fails to comply with US demands, which include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Recently, Iran rejected ceasefire proposals, which included efforts by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey to secure a 45-day pause of hostilities to set the stage for a full resolution of the conflict.
Fed expected to keep rates steady; services PMI in the US disappoints
Meanwhile, business activity in the US services sector slowed, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Services PMI in March eased to 54 in March from 56.1, missing expectations of 55. The prices paid sub-component of the PMI surged to its highest level since October 2022, to 70.7, due to higher energy costs, according to Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Last Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised markets, as the economy added 178K Americans to the workforce, exceeding estimates of 60K and February’s downwardly revised print of -133K. Based on all the data, the economy averaged 68K in the first three months.
Consequently, the Unemployment Rate edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%, beneath the Federal Reserve’s 4.5% target for 2026. This erased the Fed’s dovish bets as depicted by money markets, which now expect the US central bank to keep rates steady throughout the whole year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
The US economic docket will be busy, as traders eye Durable Goods Orders, speeches by Fed officials, the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting, growth data, Initial Jobless Claims and inflation figures.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold struggles at $4,700, sellers target the 100-day SMA
Gold price faces key resistance at $4,700, and retreated towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,639. Bulls seem to be losing traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains bearish and is approaching oversold territory.
If XAU/USD finishes on a daily basis below the 100-day SMA, this clears the path to challenge $4,600. Below here, the next area of interest is the April 2 daily low at $4,553, ahead of $4,500. Conversely, if Gold rallies past $4,700, the first area of supply overhead is the 20-day SMA at $4,755. On further strength, $4,800 lies up next.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 58.6 to 60.6 in March
Markets are beginning to flirt with the idea of a peace dividend. Equities are lifting as the possibility of a 45-day ceasefire circulates through the tape, while crude eases back as the immediate risk premium gets trimmed. It is a familiar reflex. When the threat of disruption fades, even marginally, risk assets reach for oxygen and oil gives back some of its geopolitical froth.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $73.50 on Middle East ceasefire odds
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds gains after recovering daily losses, trading around $73.30 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. Non-interest-bearing Silver finds support as traders price in easing hawkish odds surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, following reports pointing to potential Middle East ceasefire prospects. News of US-Iran talks has pressured oil prices, helping to ease inflation concerns.
The United States and Iran have received a proposed framework to end hostilities, featuring a two-step plan with an immediate ceasefire followed by a broader agreement. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has reportedly been in continuous contact with US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, Tehran stated it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary ceasefire arrangement, according to Reuters.
Earlier, Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire, following US President Donald Trump’s warning that he would bring “hell” to Tehran if no deal is reached.
However, markets may continue to price in the Fed delaying rate cuts, with the possibility of higher borrowing costs later this year if inflation persists. Investors now await the latest Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the policy outlook.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
India HSBC Composite PMI came in at 57, above expectations (56.5) in March
Looking at the weekly chart, the US Dollar has traded in a choppier, more volatile fashion, struggling to build on the strong gains seen the previous week. As has been the case lately, markets have remained cautious, with uncertainty around the Middle East conflict still front and centre, compounded by the lack of a clear and consistent signal from the White House.
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1500 as robust US jobs data, Middle East tensions support US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1515 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US jobs data and heightened uncertainty in the Middle East boost demand for the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday appeared to set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. This came as Trump issued a profane message renewing threats to bomb power plants and other infrastructure if Tehran does not lift its effective blockade on the vital waterway.
Iranian officials noted that Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related to it. Tehran added that the strait will remain blocked until Iran receives pay for war damages.
The US economy added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This figure followed a 133,000 decline (revised from -92,000) and came in above the market consensus of a 60,000 gain. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate edges lower to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February, better than the estimates.
Hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB) might help limit the EUR’s losses. The ECB has maintained a firm commitment to combating inflation. President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members have delivered consistent messages, emphasizing that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions down to $163.2K from previous $168.3K
When a currency weakens too quickly, central banks often step in. The objective is clear: stabilise markets, restore confidence, and if possible, reverse the move. But history suggests the reality is more complex. Intervention can slow a trend, and at times trigger sharp reversals; but it rarely changes direction unless the underlying macro forces shift as well.
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £-52.7K from previous £-58.4K
When a currency weakens too quickly, central banks often step in. The objective is clear: stabilise markets, restore confidence, and if possible, reverse the move. But history suggests the reality is more complex. Intervention can slow a trend, and at times trigger sharp reversals; but it rarely changes direction unless the underlying macro forces shift as well.