Bitcoin price is trading above $120,000 on Friday, inching closer to its all-time high of $123,218. Ethereum price has surged by over 20% so far this week, with bulls aiming for the $4,000 level next. Ripple has taken center stage, reaching a new record high of $3.66 on Friday, signaling renewed demand and optimism across the market.
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $213.1K vs $203K
Bitcoin price is trading above $120,000 on Friday, inching closer to its all-time high of $123,218. Ethereum price has surged by over 20% so far this week, with bulls aiming for the $4,000 level next. Ripple has taken center stage, reaching a new record high of $3.66 on Friday, signaling renewed demand and optimism across the market.
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions declined to ¥103.6K from previous ¥116.2K
Bitcoin price is trading above $120,000 on Friday, inching closer to its all-time high of $123,218. Ethereum price has surged by over 20% so far this week, with bulls aiming for the $4,000 level next. Ripple has taken center stage, reaching a new record high of $3.66 on Friday, signaling renewed demand and optimism across the market.
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €128.2K vs €120.6K
Bitcoin price is trading above $120,000 on Friday, inching closer to its all-time high of $123,218. Ethereum price has surged by over 20% so far this week, with bulls aiming for the $4,000 level next. Ripple has taken center stage, reaching a new record high of $3.66 on Friday, signaling renewed demand and optimism across the market.
US President Trump pushes for 15% to 20% minimum tariffs on all EU goods – FT
According to the Financial Times, US President Donald Trump has escalated his demands to the European Union (EU), eyeing at least a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in a deal with the Eurozone, revealed three people briefed on talks.
Key quotes:
The US president’s hardened stance aims to test the EU’s pain threshold after weeks of talks on a framework agreement that would have maintained a baseline tariff of 10% on most goods.
People familiar with the negotiations say Trump has also been unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs, and would be happy to keep duties on the sector at 25% as planned.
One US official told the FT the administration is now looking at a reciprocal tariff rate that exceeds 10%, even if a deal is reached.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates below multi-year highs
- Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near $38.00 after hitting a 14-year high earlier this week.
- The metal remains supported by an ascending channel on daily and weekly charts.
- RSI and ADX on the daily chart are turning higher, signaling a possible return in bullish momentum.
Silver (XAG/USD) is treading water on Friday, with spot prices hovering near $38.25 after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 earlier this week. The metal continues to draw support from a firmly bullish structure, trading within a well-defined ascending channel on both the daily and weekly charts. While momentum has cooled slightly near multi-year highs, the broader technical outlook remains positive, with prices still comfortably positioned above key short-term moving averages.
The 21-day EMA at $37.05 continues to provide dynamic support, while the 50-day EMA near $35.82 offers a solid cushion for any deeper pullbacks.
Although price is consolidating just below the $38.50-$39.00 resistance zone, momentum indicators are beginning to turn higher again. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eased slightly after nearing overbought territory earlier in the week when Silver hit its 14-year high. However, it has started to slope upward again, currently hovering around 66, pointing to a potential revival in buying interest.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily chart is also beginning to pick up, suggesting that trend strength may be strengthening after a brief slowdown. These developments indicate that the recent consolidation may be a healthy pause within the broader uptrend, rather than a signal of exhaustion.
Immediate support is seen around $37.00 round number, aligning with the 21-day EMA and marking a key line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the next support at $35.50, followed by a stronger demand zone near $34.50. On the upside, a sustained move above $39.13 would likely attract fresh buying interest, opening the door for a push toward the psychological $40.00 level and potentially higher.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index improves to 61.8 in July vs. 61.5 expected
- UoM Consumer Sentiment Index rose more than expected in July’s flash estimate.
- US Dollar Index extends its daily slide toward 98.00.
Consumer confidence in the United States (US) improved in July, with the University of Michigan’s (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 61.8 from 60.7 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 61.5.
The Current Conditions Index rose to 66.8 from 64.8 in this period, while the Consumer Expectations Index edged higher to 58.6 from 58.1.
Other details of the survey showed that the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.4% from 5% in June and the 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations fell to 3.6% from 4%.
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) stays under bearish pressure following this report. At the time of press, the USD Index was down nearly 0.5% on the day at 98.15.
EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 1.1585/1.1655 – UOB Group
Slowing momentum suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, Euro (EUR) is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 1.1585/1.1655 against US Dollars (USD). In the longer run, EUR weakness appears to have stabilised; for the time being, it is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR weakness appears to have stabilised
24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected EUR to ‘trade between 1.1580 and 1.1680.’ Our expectation was incorrect, as EUR dipped to a low of 1.1555 and then rebounded. The rebound and slowing momentum suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, EUR is more likely to trade sideways, probably between 1.1585 and 1.1655.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our EUR view from negative to neutral yesterday (17 Jul, spot at 1.1630). We indicated that EUR ‘weakness has stabilised.’ We also indicated that ‘for the time being, EUR is likely to consolidate in a range of 1.1550/1.1720.’ There is no change in our view.”
NZD/USD Price Forecast: 200-EMA acts as key support
- NZD/USD gains to near 0.5955 as the US Dollar takes a breather after gains for over two weeks.
- Fed Waller reiterates the need to reduce interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.
- Investors await NZ’s Q2 CPI data, which will be released on Monday.
The NZD/USD pair rises 0.4% to near 0.5955 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its over two-week rally amid uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).
US President Donald Trump expressed confidence on Wednesday that there is a possibility of a trade deal with the EU. Meanwhile, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic has headed to Washington for a fresh round of trade talks. Last weekend, Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imports from the trading bloc.
On the domestic front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller has reiterated views that the central bank should cut interest rates in the July policy meeting. “The Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at July meeting as rising risks to economy and employment favour easing policy rate,” Waller said on Thursday in a gathering at New York University.
Contrary to Waller’s remarks, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is certain to leave interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting later this month.
In New Zealand (NZ), investors await the Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be published on Monday. The CPI report is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew at a moderate pace of 0.6%, compared to a 0.9% increase seen in the first quarter.
NZD/USD attracts bids near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.5910. However, the overall trend remains bearish as the 20- and 50-day EMAs slope downwards.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below that level.
Going forward, a downside move by the pair below the June 23 low of 0.5883 will expose it to the May 12 low of 0.5846, followed by the round-level support of 0.5800.
In an alternate scenario, the Kiwi pair would rise towards the June 19 high of 0.6040 and the September 11 low of 0.6100 if it manages to return above the psychological level of 0.6000.
NZD/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (QoQ)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures changes in the price of goods and services bought by New Zealand households. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Next release: Sun Jul 20, 2025 22:45
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 0.9%
Source: Stats NZ
WTI drifts higher above $66.00 on brewing Middle East tension
- WTI price rises to $66.15 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Simmering tensions in the Middle East and strong summer demand boost the WTI price.
- Tariff uncertainty might cap the WTI’s upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies.
Reuters reported late Thursday that a drone attack on Kurdistan targeted a Norwegian-operated oil and gas firm in the Tawke, Zakho administration area of northern Iraq, leading to a suspension of production. At this time, the US has refrained from any major counterattacks. Therefore, the situation remains relatively peaceful. Any signs of escalation in this region could raise fears of tight global supply, which might provide some support to the WTI price.
US crude oil inventories fell last week, suggesting robust summer demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 11 fell by 3.859 million barrels, compared to a rise of 7.07 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 1.8 million barrels.
Nonetheless, the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war might cap the upside for the WTI price. Trump said on Wednesday that he intends to send a letter telling more than 150 trade partners what tariff rate they will face. High tariffs could slow down the economy and thereby hurt oil and energy demand, weighing on the oil prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.