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• A crypto payment service provider Alphapo’s hot wallet was hacked and $23 million in Ethereum, Tron and Bitcoin were stolen. 
• Ether stolen by the attacker was bridged to Avalanche and Bitcoin. 
• The payment processor caters to crypto gambling services, withdrawal services on HypeDrop, Bovada and Ignition are affected. 

Altcoins like Ethereum, Tron and others in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are making strides in the ongoing alt season in July. Amidst this, crypto payment processor Alphapo was hit by a hack, the firm’s hot wallets were drained of $23 million in Ethereum (ETH), Tron (TRX) and Bitcoin (BTC).

Also read: Hong Kong takes crypto China narrative forward with crypto trading launch by securities firm

Crypto payment processor drained of millions in altcoins

Crypto influencer and analyst ZachXBT monitored the state of crypto payment processor Alphapo and identified a hack of $23 million. Hot wallets of the processor were drained for Ether, Tron and BTC early on Sunday. 

The stolen funds were converted to Ether and then bridged to Avalanche and Bitcoin on the ETH blockchain. In response to the hack, crypto withdrawals of gambling services HypeDrop, Bovada and Ignition were hampered and users were unable to access their funds.

The wallet addresses associated with the $23 million hack have been identified:

• 0x040a96659fd7118259ebcd547771f6ecb9580d17
• 0x6d2e8a20b8afa88d92406d315b67822c01e53c38
• TKSitnfTLVMRbJsF1i2UH5hNUeHLDrXDiY
• TDoNAZHa7WxarUAFbQUhiijTGtd7EpbzRh
• TJF7mdFxDuHB4tb9hoyR4SCpKxk7gr23ym

The complete extent of the Bitcoin theft remains unclear at the time of writing. Crypto intelligence trackers are conducting their investigation alongside cybersecurity experts and analyzing the involved addresses on-chain.

Incidents similar to the one that currently plagues Alphapo are common in the DeFi ecosystem and blockchain intelligence firm PeckShield observed more than 395 major hacks in the Web3 space. A total of $479.4 million in funds was lost to such exploits and the top 10 accounted for $378.3 million worth of hacks.

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Gold prices slipped on Friday even as treasury yields eased as the dollar rose. However, the price ended higher for the third straight week:

Gold weekly and daily charts

The wick leaves bullish prospects on the lower time frames as follows: 

However, let’s take a step back.

Firstly, the US Dollar rose, making gold more expensive for international buyers at the end of the week and the third day of lower closes in the Gold price comes ahead of next week’s two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee.

The Fed is expected to end with a 25 basis point hike to US interest rates, although for most gold investors it is the medium to longer term that matters. But following reports that inflation and the economy are slowing, few expect the central bank to further raise rates this year and some have begun expecting it to begin rolling back its hikes in the new year.

”The Fed is widely expected to resume policy rate increases next week following its decision to pause in June. While we anticipate that July will bring the last rate hike of this cycle, we don’t think the Committee is comfortable signalling that shift yet,” analysts at TD Securities, however, argued. ”Indeed, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, will likely reiterate that an additional rate increase this year still holds.”

This leaves gold price at a crossroads on the charts and this can go either way. 

Let’s delve into the charts: 

Gold, technical top-down analysis

On the 3-week charts below, we can see that the gold price has failed to make a higher high within the bullish cycle, so far…

if bears commit, then there is a risk of a significant downturn in the Gold price towards the dominant trendline support and to break key structure near $1,617. 

Gold price at a crossroads

Meanwhile, and coming back to the near-term outlook, we can see that the Gold price is at a crossroads:

The price broke last week’s and month’s highs but is failing to convince as the bears move in. the correction could be headed towards a test of the recent structural lows near $1,945:

Gold price, bearish outlook

Gold price bullish outlook

On the other hand, we could see the price regain its northerly trajectory and break to close above last month’s highs. 

Gold price opening range expectations

To start the week on Monday, it is worth noting that we had a failed break of the week’s and last month’s highs on Thursday. This then resulted in two consecutive days of shorts and lower lows on the third day of lower closes. we also went on to break the prior day’s and week’s lows on Friday. All of this is giving us information:

1) Longs are trapped up high;

2) Shorts are in the money;

3) We had three sessions of drop on Friday that broke the prior week’s lows.

This all points towards a short squeeze to trap bears for the initial balance from beneath the prior week’s and Thursday’s lows:

(15 and 30 min charts, above and below)

A break above $1,964 would create a market structure shift, MSS, and add conviction to the bullish bias for next week’s opening.

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• Hong Kong-based securities firm announced the launch of cryptocurrency trading on its platform. 
• While banking institutions have raised concerns of money laundering and delayed the onboarding of crypto clients, the firm opened doors to crypto trade. 
• The securities firm successfully completed its first virtual asset transaction early on Saturday. 

Hong Kong, China’s Special Administrative Region (SAR) is consistent in its efforts to emerge as a crypto hub. The government instructed banks and financial institutions to welcome licensed crypto entities and roll-out services to them, to make operations smoother for virtual asset firms.

A Hong Kong-based securities firm has announced its first successful crypto trade, fueling the bullish narrative of crypto adoption in China’s SAR.

Also read: XRP price wipes out 12% gains after SEC said the regulator will appeal Judge Torres’ ruling

Hong Kong-based securities firm offers crypto trading services

Quam Securities became the first Hong Kong-based securities firm to launch crypto trading services. A user successfully completed the first virtual asset transaction on HashKey PRO through Hong Kong Quam Securities APP. This move by the securities firm marks the virtual asset trading solution available to brokerages in China’s SAR.

The firm rolled out crypto trading alongside real-time market support for 50 order prices. While banks and financial institutions in the company are lagging behind in offering services to licensed crypto entities, the move by the securities firm is aligned with Hong Kong’s initiative to emerge as a crypto hub in Asia.

Quam Securities announced the details of the first successful transaction early on Saturday, garnering appreciation from Hong Kong-based crypto community of traders. 

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• Ethereum network’s active addresses in the past 24 hours declined, as sellers extended their dominance in ETH. 
• Ethereum whales holding between 10,000 and 1,000,000 Ether tokens have shed their holdings of the altcoin over the past two days. 
• ETH supply on exchanges climbed as price risks decline below the $1,800 level.

Ethereum network activity has declined after weeks of high activity from addresses, as seen on crypto intelligence tracker Santiment. The reduction in active addresses in the ETH network, and decline in holdings by large wallet investors are two factors that are likely to negatively influence Ethereum price.

Also read: Ethereum price likely to reach $2,000, according to these bullish on-chain metrics

Ethereum on-chain metrics turn bearish

Ethereum’s on-chain metrics like daily address activity, whale holdings and supply on exchanges have turned bearish over the past 48 hours. Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, there is a decline in daily active addresses over the past two days. ETH price declined from $2,011 on July 13 to $1,887 at the time of writing

Active addresses (24 hour) vs ETH price

As seen in the chart below, ETH supply on exchanges has increased between July 16 and the time of writing, after consistent decline over a multi-month period. Whale activity, represented by yellow and blue bars, has declined since its peak in mid-July. Bearish on-chain metrics have likely fueled the spike in selling pressure on Ethereum.

Supply held on exchanges, whale transaction count, ETH price

Whales in two segments, holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH tokens and 100,000 and 1,000,000 Ether have shed their holdings over the past two days. This is another bearish on-chain metric that points towards a decline in ETH price in the short term.

At the time of writing, Ethereum price is $1,888.30 and the altcoin has sustained above the key psychological level of $1,800.

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• The US SEC revealed its intention to appeal the ruling in the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit, arguing that the court failed to properly apply the law. 
• The development has resulted in a wipeout of XRP’s recent gains, the altcoin’s price dipped 12% on Binance, since Friday. 
• XRP price is $0.7738 at the time of writing, nearly 17% below its peak of $0.9375 from the day of Judge Torres’ ruling, July 13. 

US financial regulator, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently announced that it is prepared to appeal Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling in the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit. Since the judgement on July 13, there has been speculation among XRP holders regarding the SEC’s appeal and change in the Judge’s ruling on the case.

Pro-XRP attorney John Deaton has explained that despite an appeal, there is relatively low likelihood of Judge Torres’ ruling being overturned.

Also read: Ripple Europe Chief chases UK license after partial win in SEC vs Ripple lawsuit

XRP price declines after SEC shares plan to appeal the judgement

XRP price dropped 12% since Friday, against USDT on Binance. The altcoin wiped out its gains after news of the US SEC’s plan to appeal the ruling in the SEC vs Ripple case. The outcome of the lawsuit was out on July 13, fueling a massive rally in XRP and altcoins.

Between July 13 and 22, XRP price declined 17%. Ripple’s partial win fueled enthusiasm among XRP holders and pushed the altcoin to its local peak of $0.9375. At the time of writing, XRP price is $0.7738. 

XRP/USDT one-day price chart Binance 

SEC’s plan to appeal the ruling in SEC vs Ripple case

According to a recent Bloomberg report, the US SEC announced that a federal judge (Judge Analisa Torres in this case) erred in ruling against the institution in a landmark crypto case. The regulator has signaled its intention to appeal the decision. 

The SEC argued that the court failed to consider the evidence presented by the regulator and failed to apply the law to the presented facts. The regulator argues that there is potential harm to investors if Ripple Labs is allowed to continue operating without registering the XRP token as a security.

Find out more about the SEC’s plan here.

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• Litecoin halving is 11 days away, analysts observe renewed enthusiasm among LTC traders. 
• In the past six months, 1,185 new addresses have added more than 100 LTC to their holdings. 
• LTC halving event is likely to catalyze a massive price rally in the altcoin. 

Litecoin is less than two weeks away from its halving event when block reward for mining LTC will be slashed in half. LTC holders have displayed enthusiasm as the Litecoin halving event draws close. 

LTC price on Binance is $92.58, the altcoin continues to sustain above the key psychological barrier at $90. 

Also read: Alt season likely in Q3 with declining Bitcoin dominance, July emerges as altcoin month

Litecoin price sustains above $90 closer to LTC halving

According to the Litecoin halving countdown tracker on Nicehash.com, LTC is 11 days away from its halving. The halving event marks a key milestone for Litecoin holders for two reasons. First it reduces the circulating supply of the asset, as block reward for mining LTC is slashed in half, therefore decreasing the selling pressure on the asset. 

Litecoin halving countdown tracker on Nicehash.com

The second reason is that LTC halving events catalyze a rally in the altcoin’s price. Traders are enthusiastic that the scarcity will be enough to sustain the altcoin’s price above $90. 

In the months leading up to the altcoin, 1,185 wallet addresses have joined the Litecoin network, holding upwards of 100 LTC each. These entities are bullish on LTC price rally with the upcoming halving event. 

Based on data from Santiment, less than 12 days away from the halving, 36,800 wallets have at least 100 LTC each in their wallets. The rise in wallets holding large volume of LTC token is a sign of accumulation, typical of a bullish thesis for the altcoin.

Litecoin entities scoop up more LTC tokens closer to the halving

The alt season narrative has gathered steam in July 2023, after Blockchaincenter.net tracker identified it as altcoin month. Altcoins, including LTC have consistently outperformed Bitcoin throughout the past thirty days, increasing the likelihood of an alt season in Q3 2023. Find out more about it here.

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• Compound price over the past month and a half posted a 171% rally which came to a stop after the altcoin corrected by 8% this week.
• In the span of two weeks, over $35 million worth of COMP has been sold by long-term holders.
• Some of this was picked up by short-term holders but has led to an overall increase of 230,000 COMP on exchanges.

Compound price made its investors’ considerable profits these past few weeks as the altcoin kept climbing the charts. This successful rally, however, is now coming to an end as the COMP holders have decided to finally cash in on this growth after being patient for a very long time.

Compound price rally invokes profit-taking

Compound price is currently trading above $70 after rising by more than 170% in the last month and a half, bringing the altcoin up from $26. The altcoin marked the year-to-date highs of $77, shooting up by nearly 200% but declined over the past week to note an 8% drawdown. 

This decrease in price was the result of profit taking which was long overdue for some COMP investors. The recent increase brought the altcoin to a 14-month high which triggered a particular cohort of investors that had been waiting to offset their losses for the longest time. 

COMP/USD 1-day chart

The long-term holders, also known to be some of the most loyal investors of any asset, are the ones that hold on to their supply for a period of more than 12 months. Their presence tends to prevent excessive price volatility and brings stability during bearish markets. However, when they sell, they tend to impact the price significantly.

This could be the case going forward, as over the last two weeks, COMP long-term holders began selling to make profits on their investment. Compound price at this time last year was $55, and the addresses that bought their supply at that price are presently enjoying 30% profits. Naturally, considering the uncertain nature of the crypto market, it was in their best interest to lock in these profits as they did.

Since July 7, long-term holders’ supply has reduced by 500,000 COMP, which is worth over $35.5 million at the current prices. While some of this supply was picked up by short-term holders (investors holding assets for less than a month), most of it is yet to be accumulated. 

Compound supply distribution

As a result, the supply on exchanges has risen by over 300,000 COMP bringing it to 1.52 million COMP. This selling brought the rally to a halt, however, since it will not bear a negative impact on the altcoin, a significant decline is unlikely. 

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• FTX token, FTT extends the downswing as the court finds Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of another crime.
• Reportedly, the FTX founder has been sponsoring his defense using stolen funds.
• The allegation has been added to the list of offenses he has to account for.

FTX token (FTT) price has extended its bearish streak on the back of new allegations against FTX founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. While the shamed crypto executive continues to fight charges of fraud, bribery, and even charges of campaign finance violation, new allegations have come in, adding to the list of crimes he is answerable to.

Also Read:Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Possible BTC game plan as volatility shrinks

FTX token price suffers as SBF charges increase

FTX toke has extended its rally south to find itself stuck between the 100- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) at $1.47 and 1.36, respectively. Recovery efforts appear to have stopped at this level, for the meantime, as the former CEO of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange faces charges that add to the stockpile of cases he must answer to.

FTT/USDT 1-Day Chart

Based on recent reports, Sam Bankman-Fried has been discovered to be sponsoring his defense team using stolen funds. The news comes as lawyers representing the collapsed exchange claim that SBF was paying up to $10 million for his lawyer using money resulting from misappropriation when he was servicing the exchange.

Further, the lawyers also call him out for issuing up to $10 million to Joe Bankman, his father, further worsening the outlook of his case.

Based on these accusations, the exchange’s legal representatives want SBF to answer for an extended list of crimes, now including stealing funds to pay his lawyers. The accusation continues to paint him as a conman.

SBF uses tainted money to pay attorney fees

In a 2019 publishing where lawyers discussed the concept of stolen funds being used for legal fees, one lawyer is quoted saying:

If I as an attorney learn that my client has retained me with stolen money, I believe I have both an ethical and moral obligation to return that money to its proper owner and then withdraw from representation of that client.

The lawyers were discussing the ethical dilemma around the civil lawyer of Jennifer McDonald, Lee Berlik, was facing. Like SBF, Jennifer was cited for allegedly using stolen money to pay for his services. If proven true, the position of the US Department of Justice (DOJ), as cited in the US Attorneys’ Manual (“USAM”), is that lawyers should not face prosecution under § 1957 “based on the receipt of bona fide legal fees for legitimate representation in a criminal matter.”

However, SBF’s lawyers would only be blameless if it was proven beyond reasonable doubt that they did not have any actual knowledge about the illegal source of the specific funds. Nevertheless, FTX lawyers are already working out how to recover those funds from SBF and other executives from the firm. 

While SBF has not commented on this accusation, FXStreet team is monitoring developments and will update you.

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Retail Sales rose in Canada by 0.2% in May, below the 0.5% increase expected. Analysts at CIBC point out that retail sales seeing little growth in May, and the advance estimate suggests that the sideways trend continued into June, the report reflects sluggishness in Canadian consumer spending even before the Bank of Canada restarted its rate hiking cycle.

Key quotes: 

“Canadian retail sales rose by a modest 0.2% in May, slightly below the 0.5% consensus forecast albeit following a strong 1.0% increase in the prior month. In volume terms, overall sales edged up by 0.1% on the month and were 1.3% higher on a year-over-year basis. Given strong population growth seen over the past 12 months, this year-over-year growth rate would still represent a decline in per capita terms.”

“While overall GDP in Q2 is still tracking close to the 1.5% Bank of Canada MPR forecast, today’s data suggest that consumer spending likely wasn’t a significant driver of that growth, even accounting for growth in services spending. Industry data showing strength in areas such as manufacturing and wholesale suggest that inventory accumulation or business investment may be more significant contributors, which wouldn’t be bad news from an inflation point of view.”
 

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• GBP/USD corrects from 15-month highs as US Dollar sellers take a breather.
• All eyes remain on the US Federal Reserve policy announcements in the week ahead.
• GBP/USD bulls could re-emerge at lower levels while the key 1.2835 support holds.

Following a stunning week, the Pound Sterling corrected sharply against the United States Dollar (USD), knocking GBP/USD back under the 1.3000 psychological level. In the week ahead, the pair awaits the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision and top-tier economic data from the United States for a fresh directional impetus.

GBP/USD: What happened last week?

The focus turned back toward China in the early part of the week after the world’s second-largest economy reported below-forecast growth, alongside mixed economic activity data, which rekindled China’s slowdown worries and helped put a flow under the safe-haven US Dollar. China’s GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year but the rate missed estimates for a growth of 7.3%. Meanwhile, the country’s Retail Sales missed estimates with a 3.1% increase in June. Industrial Production, however, came in at 4.4% in the reported period vs. 2.7% expected. 

Investors also took that as an excuse to unwind their USD short positions after the previous two weeks of sharp declines. Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report also underpinned the sentiment around the US currency. The US Commerce Department showed on Tuesday that the country’s Retail Sales increased 0.2% last month against 0.5% expected. Despite the below-forecast reading, the underlying sales remained resilient, with online sales surging by 1.9%. Meanwhile, sales at food services and drinking places edged up 0.1%. 

However, expectations that the Federal Reserve could potentially pause its rate hike cycle after the 25 basis points (bps) increase in July kept the US Dollar recovery checked. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in a 25 bps Fed rate hike next week. Previous week’s softer US inflation data combined and dovish Fedspeak ramped up bets for a Fed rate hike pause beyond July.

Against this backdrop, GBP/USD extended its correction from 15-month highs near 1.3140, only to witness further follow-through selling after soft UK inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 7.9% in June, slowing sharply from an 8.7% increase recorded in May, the latest data published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Wednesday. The market had estimated an 8.2% growth. The Core CPI gauge (excluding volatile food and energy items) increased 6.9% YoY last month, compared with a 7.1% rise seen in May while beating expectations of a 7.1% print. Downbeat UK data poured cold water on hopes for another 50 bps rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in August.

In the second half of the week, GBP/USD reached fresh eight-day lows on the 1.2800 level, as the US Dollar embarked upon a meaningful recovery, courtesy of disappointing tech earnings reports and the revival of the hawkish Fed expectations. US weekly Jobless Claims data indicated fresh signs of labor market resiliency, bringing odds for another rate hike this year back on the table. The latest data published by the US Labor Department showed Thursday that the initial Unemployment Claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000 in the week ended July 15 against 237,000 in the previous week, hitting a two-month low.

On the final trading day of the week, GBP/USD paused its run of declines and attempted a comeback, drawing support from the upbeat UK Retail Sales data and a broad-based US Dollar retreat. The UK Retail Sales rose 0.7% over the month in June vs. 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior, according to the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday. The Core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, jumped 0.8% MoM vs. 0.1% expected and 0% seen in May. Meanwhile, the end-of-the-week flows and pre-Fed decision market’s repositioning also helped the pair recover some lost ground. 

Week ahead: Federal Reserve in spotlight

A slew of key event risks from the United States are due on the cards in the upcoming week while the United Kingdom economic calendar remains relatively light.

The S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from both sides of the Atlantic will dominate GBP/USD flows on Monday. However, Tuesday has nothing much to offer, data-wise, except for the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence index.

Wednesday is critical, as the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rates decision, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The Fed’s outlook on the interest rate path and inflation will be key to determining the next direction in the US Dollar, as well as the GBP/USD pair.

Another eventful day awaits on Thursday, with the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision, US Q2 advance Gross Domestic Product, Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales data due on the cards. Volatility around the major could spike on these high-impact macro events.

On Friday, the main focus will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index, which could help reprice Fed’s policy expectations. Traders will also look forward to the revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data, which will wrap up a blockbuster week.

GBP/USD: Technical outlook

GBP/USD is teasing a critical daily support line, pegged at 1.2860, wrapping a down week. If the said support level is breached along with the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.2835 on a daily closing basis, it could kickstart a fresh downtrend toward 1.2750. That level is the confluence of the psychological threshold and the July 10 low.

The next crucial demand area is seen around 1.2660, where the upward-sloping 50 DMA tests the July 6 low. Further down, the June 29 low of 1.2591 is set to test bearish traders’ commitments. The downside, however, appears limited as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 threshold. Therefore, any further retracement in the pair could be seen as a good dip-buying opportunity.

On the flip side, should Pound Sterling bulls manage to defend the above-mentioned ascending trendline support at 1.2861, a meaningful upswing toward the 1.3000 level cannot be ruled out. Pound Sterling buyers will face the next stiff resistance near the 1.3150 psychological level, near where the April 14 2022 high aligns. The March 23 high of 1.3298 will be on buyers’ radars if the latter is scaled on a sustained basis. 

GBP/USD: Forecast poll

FXStreet Forecast Poll paints a mixed picture for GBP/USD. Experts are split virtually evenly between bullish, bearish and neutral bias in the one-week and one-month outlooks. 

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