Gold now seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase below the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.
South Korean Won: Reform-driven support for won – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight that the South Korean government has unveiled a major South Korean Won (KRW) internationalisation roadmap, including unlimited KRW transactions with foreign institutions from January 2027 and broader access to onshore markets. They argue these reforms should lower the risk premium, deepen offshore liquidity and improve foreign access, even as greater internationalisation may heighten KRW sensitivity to global risk sentiment. USD/KRW fell to 1,478 on exporter-driven Dollar sales.
KRW roadmap boosts offshore access
“The South Korean government unveiled a broad package of measures to internationalise the KRW following the launch of 24-hour FX trading in early July. The reforms represent one of the most significant steps to liberalise the currency in years, aimed at improving offshore liquidity and foreign investors’ access to South Korean markets.”
“From January 2027, foreign investors will be allowed to conduct unlimited KRW transactions with pre-registered foreign institutions. The reforms will remove reporting requirements for most transactions and eliminate the need for foreigners to open KRW accounts in South Korea.”
“Taken together, these reforms should improve offshore access to the KRW and deepen foreign participation in South Korean financial markets.”
“The main benefit of the reforms is likely a lower risk premium and improved foreign access to South Korean assets. Deeper offshore liquidity could also facilitate larger investment and repatriation flows without generating excessive FX volatility.”
“However, greater internationalisation may increase the KRW’s sensitivity to shifts in global risk sentiment over time.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Ripple Price Prediction: XRP gains momentum amid mild growth in on-chain activity and volume
Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
US-Iran strikes persist
The US military pressed on with a tenth straight day of strikes, with explosions reported in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Chabahar, and Konarak. Iran responded by targeting US assets throughout the Gulf region.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of repercussions following US service member casualties.
The Fear & Greed Index dipped to 25 on Tuesday, placing market sentiment firmly in Extreme Fear territory, down from 29 the day before.
If sentiment continues to weaken, the recovery may lose traction. Conversely, a rebound in sentiment could fuel a more constructive market outlook.
“Looking ahead, macro developments are likely to be the main catalysts for the market. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decisions, particularly the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, will be closely watched, while the escalating conflict between the US and Iran remains an additional source of uncertainty for broader risk sentiment,” researchers at K33 stated in Tuesday’s Ahead of the Curve report.
XRP attracts modest on-chain activity
Interest in XRP is growing mildly but broadly, as reflected in the Active Addresses metric. CoinGlass data shows that the number of wallets interacting with the XRP Ledger (XRPL) by sending or receiving assets has remained steady around 23,000 on Monday and Tuesday, up from 20,000 last Sunday. This growth suggests that user interest is returning, which may continue to boost demand and support recovery in the short to medium-term.
Price analysis: XRP bulls eye short-term breakout
XRP trades at $1.13, keeping a capped tone as price remains below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Moving Average Exponentials (EMAs), which align as overhead resistance at $1.15, $1.24 and $1.44 respectively.
The recovery off the recent lows near $1.00 is underpinned by constructive momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering above the midline at 55 on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ticking higher in positive territory. However, these signals only hint at improving demand rather than a clear trend reversal while the pair is still trapped beneath the EMA stack.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA around $1.15, and a sustained break above this level would expose the next bullish objective at the 100-day EMA near $1.24, ahead of the more strategic barrier at the 200-day EMA around $1.44. On the downside, the latest close at $1.13 acts as a near-term pivot, while the former downtrend-line break level at $1.09 offers a more significant support area. A daily close back below this latter floor would likely revive selling pressure and re-open the path toward deeper retracement levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
UK PM Burnham’s first fiscal policy pledge comes on trial
A statement from United Kingdom (UK) lawmaker Darren Jones, an ally of former prime minister (PM) Keir Starmer, that the funding source of tax cuts on energy bills, as promised by new PM Andy Burnham, was already unfunded, has pushed political stability optimism under the scanner.
“The government will have to set out how it will pay for its new policies at the budget,” Jones said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
In his first speech on Monday, UK PM Burnham vowed to remove the value-added tax (VAT) from domestic electricity bills from October 1, cutting around £45 from the average annual bill of around £1,862 that households pay, Reuters reported.
“We’re taking immediate action to cut taxes on energy bills, put more money in people’s pockets and bring back hope,” he said in a statement, having pledged to give people more “breathing space” in their lives.
UK Burnham further added that the cost of tax cuts will be borne by funds allocated for the £1.8 billion ($2.42 billion) digital ID program, which will now be canceled.
Market reaction
A corrective move is seen in the British Pound (GBP) following the tweet from UK lawmaker Jones. At press time, GBP/USD is down to near 1.3440 from its intraday high of 1.3455, but is still marginally higher from Monday’s closing price of 1.3430.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Swiss Franc weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar
USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8110 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising safe-haven demand amid ongoing hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran, which drove oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets price in 64.2% odds of a September Fed rate hike, compared to 57.8% a day earlier. In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials have entered their traditional blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely anticipated to hold the federal funds rate steady.
US attacks on Iran continued for a tenth straight day. The ongoing campaign has coincided with continued retaliatory strikes from Tehran against neighboring countries, further escalating instability across the region.
Although the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a stable medium-term inflation outlook, recent meeting minutes reveal growing caution among policymakers. Escalating geopolitical tensions have increased short-term inflation risks, leading the SNB to reaffirm its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to curb excessive franc appreciation and safeguard price stability. Investors now turn their attention to June’s Trade Balance data, scheduled for release later in the day.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Breaking: New Zealand’s CPI inflation climbs to 4.1% YoY in Q2, vs 4.0% expected
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 4.1% YoY in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, compared with the 3.1% increase seen in the first quarter, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Tuesday. The market consensus was for a growth of 4.0% in the reported period.
The quarterly CPI inflation jumped to 1.5% in Q2 from the previous print of 0.9%, above the market consensus of 1.4%.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading 0.06% higher on the day to trade at 0.5845.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine slows ETH accumulation in favor of share buybacks
Ethereum price today: $1,900
- BitMine slowed its weekly Ethereum accumulation to 7,430 ETH after spending $85 million to repurchase 5.5 million BMNR shares.
- ETH ETFs recorded $105.4 million in net inflows last week, marking a second consecutive week of positive flows.
- ETH is retesting the $1,900 resistance ahead of a stronger cap at the 100-day EMA.
Ethereum (ETH) is hovering near $1,900 following a drop in accumulation by BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) in favor of $85 million worth of share buybacks and continued recovery in ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
BitMine reduces ETH buying pace
Ethereum treasury firm BitMine scooped up 7,430 ETH last week, marking its lowest weekly acquisition since pivoting to a crypto treasury model.
The latest purchase has pushed BitMine’s holdings of the top altcoin to 5.777 million ETH worth $10.86 billion at the time of publication. According to BitMine, that represents 4.8% of the entire ETH circulating supply and leaves it only 0.2% short of its initial goal of acquiring 5% of the top altcoin’s supply.
The reduced buying pressure aligns with the company’s previous statement that it will slow its pace of ETH accumulation as it approaches the 5% mark.
Instead, it has shifted capital toward stock buybacks. Last week, the Las Vegas-based firm spent roughly $85.88 million to repurchase roughly 5.5 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $15.61. The company said it executed the buyback under its already authorized $4 billion share repurchase program.
“We view the purchase of our common shares as accretive to shareholder value,” said BitMine Chairman Thomas Lee in a Monday statement.
BitMine reiterated that it has staked 4.917 million ETH (about 85% of its holdings) via its “institutional-grade” staking platform, Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN). The tokens are projected to earn $247 million in annualized staking revenue.
The company also reported holdings of 207 Bitcoin (BTC), a $180 million stake in Beast Industries, a $58 million stake in Worldcoin (WLD) treasury, Eightco Holdings (ORBS) and total cash and marketable securities of $385 million.
ETH ETFs continue recovery, but inflows remain weak
Meanwhile, US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued their recovery with $105.4 million in net inflows last week, per SoSoValue data. The move marks a second consecutive week of positive flows after eight straight weeks of outflows.
A majority of the recent flows are dominated by iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), which attracted $135.31 million last week. Most of the other funds did not record any activity, while some posted net outflows.
Despite that, the funds remain deeply in negative territory, as recent flows remain low relative to the intense outflows over the past six months.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH retests $1,909 resistance, ahead of 100-day EMA cap
Ethereum has recorded $73 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $37.71 million in liquidated long positions, according to Coinglass data.
On the daily chart, ETH is holding a constructive near-term bias after reclaiming the short-term trend filters. Price stands above the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,810 and $1,818, suggesting buyers are regaining control despite the 100-day EMA cap near $1,940.
Momentum supports this constructive tone, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 62 and the Stochastic around 80, indicating firm bullish pressure but edging into overbought territory, which could slow the advance as ETH approaches overhead levels.
On the topside, ETH is testing the immediate resistance at the nearby horizontal barrier around $1,909, followed by the 100-day EMA, which capped the price rise last week. A daily close above these would open the way toward $2,018 and $2,107, with higher bullish extension levels at $2,211 and $2,388.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent floor at $1,854, reinforced by the underlying 20- and 50-day EMAs clustered just above $1,810. A deeper pullback could see bids emerging at $1,741. A failure there would expose more distant supports near $1,524 and $1,404.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
British Pound: Sterling shifts into broader range against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD slipping but lacking strong downside momentum, with intraday trade expected between 1.3420 and 1.3475. The prior bullish view has faded after a break of 1.3450 support, and the pair is now seen in a 1.3385–1.3495 range. Over 1–3 months, broader supports lie at 1.3210 and 1.3160.
Pound loses momentum and consolidates
“24-HOUR VIEW: We expected GBP to “trade in a range between 1.3450 and 1.3520” last Friday. We did not expect GBP to drop to 1.3427. Despite the decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum and the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.3420 and 1.3475.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 1.3540), indicating that “the renewed upward momentum suggests that GBP has resumed its advance.” We also indicated that “the level to monitor is 1.3590.” On Friday, GBP fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3450. The build-up in momentum has faded, and GBP has likely entered a range-trading phase between 1.3385 and 1.3495.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Solana Price Forecast: SOL risks further decline amid weak institutional, retail demand
Solana (SOL) price edges lower on Monday, maintaining a corrective tone from early July. Institutional demand remains muted, with two consecutive weeks of inflows under $1 million, while declining Open Interest and the funding rate point to bearish retail interest, even as trading volume rises by over 70% in 24 hours.
Institutional, retail signal further downside for Solana
Solana struggles to regain strength despite easing broader market risk-off sentiment. CoinGlass data show a minor contraction in SOL futures Open Interest (OI) over the last 24 hours, to $4.77 billion, despite a 78% increase in trading volume to $5.37 billion. Meanwhile, the funding rate has slipped below zero to 0.0023%, indicating that traders are willing to buy short positions at a premium.
On the institutional side, the SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded $948,210 in inflows last week, following the previous week’s inflow of $930,430. This points to institutional interest shifting from SOL to other blue-chip crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with inflows of $75.67 million and $105.44 million last week.
Will Solana price test $70?
Solana holds a mildly bearish near-term bias as price remains below a local resistance trendline on the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, SOL trades in the red on Monday, under its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.32 and the 200-period EMA at $76.51.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 on the 4-hour chart signals neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line hint at modest positive pressure that has yet to overcome structural resistance.
Looking down, the immediate support lies at the S1 Pivot level near $73.50, reinforced by a descending support trendline near $72.80. A slip below this zone could target the S2 Pivot level at $70.62.
On the topside, a decisive close above the downward resistance trendline near $77.27 could confirm further upside for SOL. The R1 and R2 Pivot levels at $79.15 and $81.92 could cap the potential breakout rally.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indonesian Rupiah declines as fuel shortages amplify concerns over fiscal strain
USD/IDR halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 18,020 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces headwinds from rising crude oil prices. Reports of fuel shortages in Sumatra have further amplified concerns regarding Indonesia’s fiscal strain, though budget execution for the first half of 2026 has remained broadly on track.
On a positive note, investment momentum in the region has strengthened. Foreign direct investment inflows recorded their sharpest rise since late 2024 during the second quarter, underscoring Indonesia’s continued resilience in attracting long-term capital despite global economic uncertainty.
However, the upside potential for the USD/IDR pair may remain restrained. The US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground as the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. However, market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 61.4% probability of a rate hike in September.
The Greenback may regain its ground on increased risk aversion amid escalating hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran. The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region’s narrow waterways.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.