Gold price extends its gains for the second successive session on Thursday as traders seek safety amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. US and Israeli strikes across Iranian territory and widespread Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks on regional targets and military sites, prolong the crisis and its impact.
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) increased to 3% in February from previous 2.9%
Gold price extends its gains for the second successive session on Thursday as traders seek safety amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. US and Israeli strikes across Iranian territory and widespread Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks on regional targets and military sites, prolong the crisis and its impact.
Trump presses Congress on CLARITY bill after meeting with Coinbase CEO
US President Donald Trump is urging legislators to pass the CLARITY Act after allegedly meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong amid growing dispute over stablecoin yields.
Stablecoin yield dispute escalates as Trump presses Senate on crypto legislation
US President Donald Trump has urged Congress to pass the crypto market structure legislation, putting pressure on lawmakers.
In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump called for swift approval of the CLARITY Act and accused major banks of attempting to weaken existing crypto reforms.
“The US needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money,” Trump wrote, adding that banks should not “hold The Clarity Act hostage.”
The President’s comments allegedly followed a private White House meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong earlier on Tuesday, Politico reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. Details of the discussion were not disclosed.
The legislative standoff centers on whether third parties should be permitted to offer yield or rewards on customer holdings.
The CLARITY Act seeks to define regulatory oversight for digital assets by delineating authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
It builds on the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, which established a federal framework for stablecoins but prohibited issuers from paying interest to avoid replicating traditional banking activities without equivalent regulation. However, the bill didn’t prevent third parties, like exchanges, from offering yield. Banks are aiming to close that “loophole” through the CLARITY bill.
Crypto firms, including Coinbase, argue that restricting yield payments limits innovation and reduces competitiveness. Banking groups counter that allowing stablecoin issuers to offer interest-like products without full banking oversight would create regulatory arbitrage and introduce systemic risks.
The debate intensified after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon addressed the issue in a CNBC interview. Dimon noted that stablecoin issuers offering rewards or yield should be regulated under the same standards as traditional banks.
“Rewards are the same as interest,” he said, adding that firms holding customer balances and paying returns should be subject to capital requirements, liquidity rules, anti-money laundering standards, and other banking regulations.
He warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could divert deposits from traditional institutions and disrupt lending markets if not subject to equivalent oversight.
With Senate negotiations ongoing, lawmakers now face mounting pressure to resolve the stablecoin yield dispute and deliver the market structure legislation, which has been on hold since July.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH jumps alongside a spike in open interest, realized price could limit upside
Ethereum price today: $2,150
- Ethereum has reclaimed $2,100 as its open interest rose to 13.43M ETH following improved sentiment across risk assets.
- ETH’s average onchain cost basis could stall further price gains as investors may distribute after breaking even.
- ETH could test the 50-day EMA if it sees a daily close above $2,108.
Ethereum (ETH) has jumped above $2,100 on Wednesday, following a general recovery across the crypto market.
The move was accompanied by a spike in Ethereum’s open interest (OI), which has increased to 13.43M ETH — its highest level since January 31. The top altcoin’s OI has been rising since February 19, adding 1.2M ETH over the past two weeks. The growth comes amid $152 million in Ethereum liquidations over the past 24 hours, dominated by $129 million in short liquidations, according to Coinglass data.
Open interest is the total worth of outstanding contracts in a derivatives market. A jump in OI indicates that investors are building positions again.
Despite ETH’s OI increase, funding rates have continued to show consistent negative and positive readings, indicating uncertainty from investors.
Meanwhile, ETH is approaching the average onchain cost basis of investors, or its realized price, at $2,300 following its recent rise. Historically, a rise toward the realized price tends to spark short-term distribution, as some investors favor a move to the sidelines after breaking even. However, a firm move above the level could establish it as a key support level.
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The recent rise in ETH follows positive sentiment across risk assets after a New York Times report on Wednesday alleged that operatives from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence indirectly reached out to US intelligence agencies with a ceasefire offer.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH breaks $2,108 resistance, eyes 50-day EMA
In the daily chart, ETH trades at $2,150. The near-term bias turns mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has flattened and is now edging higher, signaling a shift from correction to early recovery within a broader downtrend that remains capped by the declining 50-day EMA near $2,298.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53 is above its neutral level, confirming improving upside momentum after oversold readings seen in recent weeks. On the other hand, the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) pushing into overbought territory near 91 signals stretched short-term conditions that would favor dips rather than fresh breakdowns if a pullback unfolds.
Immediate support appears at $2,108, where recent price action converges with the rising 20-day EMA. A break below there would expose the secondary support around $1,741 ahead of $1,524. On the upside, initial resistance is located at $2,390, aligning with the zone just beneath the 50-day EMA and marking the first meaningful hurdle for the nascent rebound, followed by $2,746 and then $3,411 if buyers extend control.
A sustained move above $2,108 keeps the short-term bullish bias intact, while a daily close below that level would weaken the recovery structure and refocus attention on the lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI trims gains after rally to one-year high as traders assess US-Iran conflict
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trims part of its intraday gains on Wednesday as traders assess geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $74.32 after briefly reaching a one-year high of $77.20 on Tuesday.
The pullback comes after a New York Times report suggested that Iranian operatives had signalled openness to discussing terms to end the war. However, crude prices remain elevated, up nearly 10% this week, amid ongoing disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump tried to calm markets, saying the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible” if necessary. In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump added that Washington would provide political risk insurance for ships traveling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 3.475 million barrels last week, above expectations of 2.2 million barrels, though the increase was far smaller than the previous 15.989 million-barrel build. The report had little impact on prices as markets continued to focus on supply disruptions in the Middle East.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows WTI maintaining a steady uptrend, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since bottoming at $54.88 on December 16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 77, pointing to overbought conditions while still reflecting strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line and firmly in positive territory, with the histogram continuing to expand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at Tuesday’s peak near $77.20. A break above this level could bring the $79.00-$80.00 resistance zone, marked by the January 15, 2025 high near $79.37. A sustained move above this zone may open the door for a further extension toward the $85.00 handle.
On the downside, initial support emerges in the $69.00-$70.00 zone. A break below this area could expose the 21-day SMA near $65.86, followed by the 50-day SMA around $62.30.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Canada: Growth gap versus United States seen widening – NBC
National Bank of Canada (NBC) economist Taylor Schleich highlights that since 2022, U.S. real GDP growth have outpaced Canada. The report attributes Canada’s underperformance to weaker consumption, exports and especially business investment, and notes that consensus expects the U.S. growth advantage to widen further in 2026 despite stronger Canadian government spending.
Canadian economy lags U.S. on growth
“The national accounts published last Friday confirm that the U.S. economy outpaced Canada’s in 2025. This was the third straight year of U.S. outperformance and the seventh in the last eight.”
“What’s driven lagging Canadian GDP growth over the last few years? The more appropriate question may be: what hasn’t? Canadian household consumption has trailed by ~3% cumulatively, and export growth has lagged by a similar margin. “
“The most pronounced gap, however, is on business investment. This grew more than 10% in the U.S. since 2022 but didn’t budge in Canada. Even here, relatively comparable residential investment performance obscures more alarming softness: Non-housing, private sector business investment in Canada has lagged the U.S. by more than 13%. And with persistent trade uncertainty looming over Canadian businesses, it’s hard to envision this gap narrowing much. “
“Canadian government spending is set to grow further in 2026, but that won’t be nearly sufficient to give Canada the overall GDP edge. Instead, with an engaged private sector and a stronger public sector impulse (via the OBBB), the U.S. growth advantage is seen widening this year. Alas, here’s hoping 2027 will be Canada’s year.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI meets forecasts (53.9) in February
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.
USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7800 as Middle East tensions lift Swiss Franc
The USD/CHF pair loses traction to around 0.7805 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) gathers strength against the Greenback on safe-haven flows stemming from Middle East tensions.
The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and Lebanon continue, with a strike on a hotel near Beirut and the building of the Assembly of Experts in the Iranian city of Qom. Tehran continues retaliatory attacks on Israel and US targets in the Middle East, with strikes reported on the US embassy in Dubai and a port in the city of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Heightened geopolitical risks continue to drive traders toward the Swiss Franc, a safe-haven currency, in the near term.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) on Monday delivered aggressive verbal intervention, signaling a willingness to counter CHF’s ‘excessive’ appreciation. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the CHF and act as a tailwind for the pair.
“We are prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which jeopardises price stability in Switzerland,” the SNB said in a statement.
The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US February ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. If the US Services PMI reading comes in better than the expectation, this might reinforce the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more hawkish stance and keep the interest rate higher for longer.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.8%)
GBP/USD fell about 0.35% on Tuesday, settling around 1.3350 after slipping below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average for the first time since early December. The pair has pulled back sharply from its late-January high near 1.3870, shedding over 500 pips in a series of lower highs and lower lows.
US Dollar Index rallies toward 100.00 as Iran conflict drives safe-haven flows
The DXY jumped about 0.55% on Tuesday, rallying to around 99.09 and extending Monday’s sharp move higher. The index has broken decisively out of the 97.00 to 98.50 consolidation range that held through most of February, with Monday’s strong bullish candle marking the biggest single-session gain in weeks.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is the primary catalyst behind the US Dollar’s safe-haven bid. US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed, effectively halting tanker traffic through a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Brent crude surged to around $79 per barrel, stoking fears of a fresh inflation impulse that could delay the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) easing timeline.
On the domestic side, the Fed is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed several officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation stays above target. Monday’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing report came in stronger than expected at 52.4, while the prices paid sub-index jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high. Markets are still pricing in two 25 basis point cuts this year, but rising energy costs and sticky producer prices are complicating that outlook.
DXY daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.10. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price has reclaimed the 50-day exponential moving average near 97.90 and is advancing away from that area, while the 200-day average above 99.10 still caps the broader trend. Stochastic holds in overbought territory after a strong upswing from sub-20 readings, signaling firm upside momentum but also raising the risk of a pause or brief consolidation as the index tests higher ground.
Initial resistance emerges around the 200-day EMA at 99.15, with a sustained break exposing the 100.00 region as the next upside objective. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 50-day EMA near 97.90, followed by the recent reaction low at 97.00 if a pullback develops. As long as the index holds above the 97.90 area, the path of least resistance favors further tests of the 99.15 barrier.
In the weekly chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.11. The near-term bias is neutral with a slight downside lean as price holds below the gently descending 200-week exponential moving average near 100.45, keeping the broader trend under pressure. Recent weekly closes show difficulty extending beyond the 100.00 area, suggesting upside attempts are being capped within a prevailing medium-term range. The stochastic has turned higher from oversold territory but remains mid-range, indicating only moderate recovery momentum and lacking the strength to confirm a sustained bullish reversal at this stage.
Initial resistance emerges at the psychological 100.00 region, with the 200-week EMA at 100.45 reinforcing this ceiling; a weekly close above this zone would be needed to shift the bias decisively higher toward the 101.00 area. On the downside, immediate support aligns near 98.00, guarding the late pullback lows, with a break exposing the next downside level around 97.00. As long as the index trades between 98.00 and 100.45, range conditions are likely to dominate, with momentum signals watched for confirmation of any breakout.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.