Gold trades lower for the second consecutive day on Friday, although price action remains broadly confined within recent ranges, with downside attempts still finding support around the $4,500 region per troy ounce. Market volatility stays relatively subdued heading into the weekend, as traders await fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict before taking stronger directional positions.
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions declined to £-64.3K from previous £-43.1K
Gold trades lower for the second consecutive day on Friday, although price action remains broadly confined within recent ranges, with downside attempts still finding support around the $4,500 region per troy ounce. Market volatility stays relatively subdued heading into the weekend, as traders await fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict before taking stronger directional positions.
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions climbed from previous $85K to $85.6K
Gold trades lower for the second consecutive day on Friday, although price action remains broadly confined within recent ranges, with downside attempts still finding support around the $4,500 region per troy ounce. Market volatility stays relatively subdued heading into the weekend, as traders await fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict before taking stronger directional positions.
Fed’s Warsh says he will lead reform at the Fed
Freshly-minted Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first public speech as head of the Fed on Friday, delivering his key talking points after being sworn in.
Key Warsh highlights
Ours is a time of great consequence
Not naive about challenges we face
Will lead a reform-oriented Fed
Will learn from past mistakes and successes
Inflation can be lower, but growth is strong
These years can bring unmatched prosperity
Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.6%) in March
After recording its strongest week in two months, the US dollar traded in a consolidative manner this week, with the dollar index oscillating between 98.80 and 99.40. The greenback started Monday on a strong footing following fresh Middle East tensions, including hostile rhetoric between US and Iranian officials, as well as drone attacks.
Germany IFO – Business Climate came in at 84.9, above expectations (84.2) in May
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple extend their recovery after recent corrective moves. BTC is trading above $77,700 after finding support around major levels, and ETH is near the key resistance zone, where a breakout could trigger further rebounds. Meanwhile, XRP approaches its upper boundary of the falling channel; a close above signals a bullish move.
Swiss Franc flattens against US Dollar as investors await US-Iran deal announcement
The Swiss Franc trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7870 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The USD/CHF pair consolidates as investors await the confirmation of a prolonged peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran, following the announcement that both sides have reached a “final draft” with mediation from Pakistan.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.27.
On Thursday, market sentiment turned favorable for riskier assets after the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) reported that a final draft between Washington and Tehran has been reached and a deal can be announced within next few hours.
However, Iran still seems not ready to surrender its enriched uranium and wants recognition of its authority on the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.
On the economic data, front preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI data for May has come in steady at 51.7 as an unexpected strong growth in the manufacturing sector activity offsets the impact of moderate expansion in the Services PMI.
In the Swiss economy, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will call for an exit from its dovish monetary policy stance due to rising global inflationary pressures amid elevated oil prices.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Hyperliquid hits new record high amid rising trading volumes and institutional demand
Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE surged to a fresh all-time high above $62 on Thursday, driven by strong institutional inflows and sustained momentum in decentralized perpetual futures volume.
The exchange remains the clear leader in the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) sector, controlling roughly 55% of total value locked (TVL) among decentralized perpetual exchanges. Its own TVL stood at $4.7 billion as of April 30, out of an estimated $7 billion across the entire sector.
Hyperliquid commands 55% of perpetual DEX TVL amid sector growth
The platform processed around $190 billion in trading volume in April alone, accounting for approximately 3.9% of total global perpetual exchange activity and placing it among the top 10 venues overall.
The rapid growth has been fueled by real-world asset (RWA) perpetuals and commodity-linked contracts, with commodities now representing about 30% of its open interest. The ability to trade assets such as Oil 24/7 has proven particularly attractive to users seeking broader market exposure.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley recently highlighted strong investor appetite for Hyperliquid exposure, noting $8.8 million in inflows into the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) on Wednesday, alongside $18.5 million in trading volume.
Bitwise previously stated it will begin allocating 10% of the ETF’s management fees toward holding HYPE on its balance sheet. The move mirrors Hyperliquid’s own tokenomics model, where 99% of blockchain revenue is directed toward buybacks, token burns, and ecosystem incentives.
Grayscale also reportedly purchased $10 million in HYPE, adding to the surge in institutional inflows over the past week, according to on-chain data.
The platform’s rise comes amid a broader structural shift toward decentralized derivatives trading.
The top 12 perpetual DEXes recorded an average monthly trading volume of $611.57 billion in the first four months of 2026, up from $531.65 billion in 2025, according to CoinGecko’s perpetuals report on Thursday.
This growth contrasts with centralized exchanges. The top 11 perpetual CEXes saw average monthly volumes fall 34%, declining from $7.11 trillion in 2025 to $4.69 trillion year-to-date.
As a result, the perp DEX-to-CEX volume ratio remains elevated at around 10% as of April 2026, after peaking at 13% in late 2025. This signals sustained user migration toward decentralized platforms.
Perpetual DEXes are also capturing a growing share of futures positioning. Their share of total crypto open interest (OI) has climbed to 13.5% as of late April, even as overall market OI declined from $120.35 billion at the start of 2025 to $99.09 billion.
Meanwhile, exchanges like MEXC and BingX have led the way in new perpetual contract listings between January 2025 and April 2026, adding 879 and 565 pairs, respectively, with a focus on longer-tail assets.
HYPE is trading at $58, up 7% at the time of writing, with weekly gains surging to 32%. Short liquidations on HYPE futures also surged to $37 million, according to Coinglass data, with popular short trader loracle down $30 million across his HYPE short positions.
Dow Jones Industrial Average surges as a possible US-Iran deal lands within hours
For most of Thursday the Dow Jones Industrial Average looked heavy, sliding to a session low near 49,700 as firmer Oil and a stubborn rise in yields did the work a static Federal Reserve (Fed) would not. Then the headline hit. Iranian state media, citing Al Arabiya, reported that a final draft of a US-Iran agreement had been reached through Pakistani mediation and could be announced within hours. The index ripped, erasing the slump and powering back above 50,000 to print fresh session highs toward 50,350 at the time of writing. The mechanism is straightforward. The single biggest weight on this market has been a war that kept Oil bid and inflation sticky, and a deal threatens to lift it.
Why a peace deal is a rate story
The reason equities care so much about a far-off chokepoint is that it runs straight through the inflation pipeline. Crude pushing toward triple digits has been one of the main reasons the most recent inflation reading sits near 4% YoY, well above the 2% target, and one of the main reasons Fed funds futures have priced the central bank on hold through the rest of 2026 with a rising tail risk of a hike. Take Oil out of the equation and that arithmetic softens fast. A deal that cools energy prices is a deal that hands the Fed room it does not currently have. The Dow, packed with rate-sensitive industrials and financials, is the index that benefits most directly, which is why it led the afternoon charge.
Yields and mortgages were the bear case, and the deal undercuts them
Before the headline, the bond market had been tightening on its own. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed back toward the mid-4% area as firmer Oil revived inflation fears, and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to around its highest since last summer, closing in on the 7% mark. That was the squeeze pressuring the rate-sensitive corners of the tape. A credible de-escalation pulls the rug from under that trade. Lower Oil means lower breakevens, lower breakevens mean lower yields, and lower yields mean relief for everything from homebuilders to financials. Thursday’s data did little to settle the direction on its own, with firm housing starts and Initial Jobless Claims near 209K running into a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey that collapsed into negative territory. The deal headline simply overwhelmed all of it.
The catch the rally is ignoring
Here is the discomfort. The market has bought the peace trade before and been burned. Deadlines slipped through March and April, ceasefires were declared and then broken, and the mediators briefing reporters are still describing an agenda for talks rather than a signed agreement. Tehran and Washington remain apart on the length of any nuclear freeze, and Pakistan’s army chief is reportedly heading to Tehran because the gap is not closed. So Thursday’s surge is the market front-running an announcement, not banking a result. If the deal slips again, the Oil premium and the yield squeeze come straight back, and the Dow gives this move back as quickly as it took it.
What Friday brings
The new era starts in earnest tomorrow. Kevin Warsh, the rate-cut champion President Trump installed after the closest Fed chair confirmation vote in modern history, is sworn in as chair, with outgoing chair Jerome Powell keeping his board seat and his vote. The swearing-in is ceremonial, but any early read on tone will be parsed hard, especially if a deal has reshaped the inflation outlook overnight. More tradeable is the University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment release, where consensus sees 1-year inflation expectations near 4.5% and the 5-year measure around 3.4%. A cooler print, helped along by falling Oil, would hand the new chair the cover he needs. A speech from Fed governor Christopher Waller offers another chance for the rate path to wobble. The irony writes itself: Warsh spent months arguing there was room to cut, and a peace deal he had nothing to do with may be the thing that finally proves him right.
Dow Jones 60-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
XRP consolidates as network activity improves
Ripple (XRP) remains calm, trading around $1.37 at the time of writing on Thursday. The current sideways action follows a subtle recovery from support at $1.35, and reflects broader optimism for a US-Iran peace deal.
Iran is reportedly reviewing a peace proposal from the US, delivered through Pakistan, the mediator. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the two countries are in the final stages of peace negotiations. However, Trump added that the situation could escalate if Iran does not make a deal, prompting caution across global markets.
Network activity builds on the XRP Ledger
The number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has gained traction since Monday, nearing 24,000 on Thursday, according to Santiment data. Active addresses track wallets that interact with the network by sending or receiving assets over a given period.
A steady increase suggests growing user engagement and speculative interest. At the same time, investor confidence tends to improve when on-chain activity affirms price strength and reduces bearish conviction.
Institutions are showing mild speculative interest, as XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) extended their bullish streak with inflows totaling $1.45 billion on Wednesday. According to SoSoValue, cumulative XRP ETF inflows have stabilized at $1.39 billion, with average net assets under management at $1.13 billion. Sustained ETF growth will be crucial to bolstering bullish sentiment and underpinning XRP’s near-term rebound.
Price analysis: XRP consolidation persists
XRP trades around $1.37, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price holds below all its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a recently broken rising trendline. The 50-day EMA at $1.41, backed by the ascending trendline around $1.40, acts as immediate overhead supply, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, at $1.48 and $1.70 respectively, reinforce the broader topping tone.
Momentum supports this cautious view, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 43 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram in negative territory, hinting that rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the former trendline support turned barrier near $1.40, followed closely by the 50-day EMA at $1.41, forming a nearby cap that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $1.48 and the 200-day EMA near $1.70 define progressively stronger resistance zones that currently frame the broader bearish structure. If selling activity overwhelms demand, XRP may drop to retest support at $1.35, with a deeper correction likely to extend toward $1.30.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)