Gold fades the rebound from above the $5,000 area early Wednesday, despite the decline in Oil prices. The US Dollar turns south again as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot, with focus on US CPI data. Technically, Gold closed Tuesday above 61.8% Fibo level at $5,141; is more upside on the cards?
Spain Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 4% in January
Gold fades the rebound from above the $5,000 area early Wednesday, despite the decline in Oil prices. The US Dollar turns south again as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot, with focus on US CPI data. Technically, Gold closed Tuesday above 61.8% Fibo level at $5,141; is more upside on the cards?
NZD/USD remains below 0.5950 due to increased risk aversion
NZD/USD remains in the negative territory after giving up daily gains, trading around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the pair advanced as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened amid rising Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike bets in 2026. This could be attributed to domestic inflation concerns, driven by the recent surge in oil prices.
Crude oil prices remain volatile due to growing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering its largest-ever oil reserve release to stabilize markets, although shipping disruptions through the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.
Market analysts expect inflation in New Zealand to remain more persistent than the central bank anticipates. This has reinforced expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest-rate hike, with markets now pricing in rate hikes in 2026. The outlook marks a shift from last month, when the RBNZ signaled that the official cash rate would likely stay around 2.25% throughout the year.
The US Dollar (USD) edges lower after posting modest gains in the previous session. The Greenback could regain ground on increased safe-haven demand amid rising uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that the Middle East conflict could end soon. However, US officials indicated on Tuesday that military operations were intensifying in Iran, with limited prospects for diplomatic negotiations, Reuters reported.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Clings around 158.00 on risk-off mood
The USD/JPY edges higher on Tuesday, rising nearly 0.25% as risk appetite deteriorated late in the New York session, even though the US President Donald Trump hinted a de-escalation of the conflict. At the time of writing the pair trades at 158.07 some 80 pips above its opening price.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The technical picture is slightly bearish with the USD/JPY registering a shooting star candle on Monday. Although Tuesday’s price action formed a bullish candle, revealed that sellers drove prices to a three-day low of 157.27, which opens the door for further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gathering steam, about to reach overbought territory.
If USD/JPY resumes its uptrend, the first area of interest would be the March 9 high at 158.90. Once surpassed the pair will enter potential intervention zone by Japanese authorities and the Bank of Japan at around 159.00-160.00.
Conversely, if sellers stepped in, driving the USD/JPY below 158.00, it clears the path for further downside. The next demand zone will be the March 5 swing low of 156.46, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at156.20, ahead of the 100-day SMA At 155.68.
USD/JPY Price Chart — Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.55% | -0.58% | 0.00% | -0.16% | -1.90% | -1.06% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.55% | -0.05% | 0.55% | 0.37% | -1.37% | -0.54% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | 0.58% | 0.05% | 0.62% | 0.42% | -1.33% | -0.49% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.55% | -0.62% | -0.13% | -1.87% | -1.05% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.37% | -0.42% | 0.13% | -1.75% | -0.91% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 1.90% | 1.37% | 1.33% | 1.87% | 1.75% | 0.84% | 1.80% | |
| NZD | 1.06% | 0.54% | 0.49% | 1.05% | 0.91% | -0.84% | 0.94% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.40% | -0.44% | 0.10% | -0.02% | -1.80% | -0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Forex Today: US Dollar slips as Oil stabilizes after Trump comment
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, March 11:
Better market sentiment is taking its toll on the Greenback as stabilizing Oil prices give riskier positions more appeal to investors. According to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, “Once the oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz is reestablished, global oil production will continue to outpace consumption, removing the stagnation fears.” The statement maintained markets’ optimism late in the American session. Meanwhile, G7 members stand ready to release reserves to keep oil prices under control though they have decided against any release thus far.
President Donald Trump’s comment on Monday afternoon that the war he launched alongside Israel against Iran was “largely complete” has left the market rather optimistic that a ceasefire and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz could happen as soon as this week. However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters that, “We’re concerned at the apparent lack of a joint plan on how this war can quickly be brought to a convincing conclusion.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.70, in a tightly bound range, slipping after market sentiment improved amid easing concerns about oil flows.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -1.06% | -0.32% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.98% | -0.23% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.90% | -0.15% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.08% | -1.04% | -0.30% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.01% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.95% | -0.22% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | 1.06% | 0.98% | 0.90% | 1.04% | 0.95% | 0.74% | 1.01% | |
| NZD | 0.32% | 0.23% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.22% | -0.74% | 0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -1.01% | -0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1640 price zone, reaching a one-week high after three consecutive days of gains following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s comments that the end of the war could be at hand.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3455 level, rising to a two-week high after the Middle East conflict sparked inflation fears worldwide, prompting market participants to price out a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at the March 19 meeting.
USD/JPY is trading near the 157.70 price zone, steadying after the US Dollar (USD) lost investors’ interest over a brief expectation of “resolution” in the Oil flows. The Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to gain more traction amid a weakened USD, as Oil supply disruptions linked to the escalating US-Iran war weigh on the market, given the country’s reliance on imported energy.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading below $80 per barrel after the United States (US) War Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “If Iran does anything to stop the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit harder than ever.”
Gold is trading at $5,230 as the bright metal draws support from a recently weakened USD, surging above a one-week high and now expected to extend its gains over the week.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, March 11:
- Germany, February, HICP.
- United Kingdom, BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings.
- United Kingdom, Consumer Inflation Expectations.
- United States, February, CPI.
Thursday, March 12:
- Australia, March, Consumer Inflation Expectations
- UK, January, Industrial Production.
- United States, January, Building Permits.
- United States, January, Housing Starts.
- United States, Initial Jobless Claims.
- United States, February, Monthly Budget Statement.
- New Zealand, February, Business NZ PMI.
Friday, March 13:
- UK, January, GDP.
- UK, January, Manufacturing Production.
- Spain, February, HICP.
- Eurozone, January, Industrial Production s.a.
- Canada, February, Average Hourly Wages.
- Canada, February, Net Change in Employment.
- Canada, February, Unemployment Rate.
- United States, January, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures.
- United States, January, Durable Goods Orders.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Gross Domestic Product Annualized.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Gross Domestic Product Price Index.
- United States, January, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft.
- United States, January, Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices.
- United States, January, Personal Income.
- United States, January, Personal Spending.
- United States, Flash March, Michigan Consumer Expectations Index.
- United States, Flash March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
- United States, Flash March, UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations.
- United States, January, JOLTS Job Openings.
- United States, Flash March, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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Chiliz is showing signs of strength, trading above $0.040 as of writing after breaking out of a falling wedge, a technical pattern often associated with bullish reversals. On-chain data projects a mixed outlook with a slight bullish tilt, while strengthening momentum indicators suggest the altcoin could extend its upward trend if buying pressure persists.
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Gold sticks to modest intraday gains heading into the European session, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the $5,200 mark. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which in turn, assists the safe-haven precious metal to build on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of the $5,000 psychological mark.
Gold rises as geopolitical risks underpin safe-haven demand; USD strength limits gains
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the overnight goodish rebound from the vicinity of the $5,000 psychological mark and attracts some follow-through buying during the Asian session on Tuesday. Iranian officials dismissed US President Donald Trump’s remarks that the Middle East conflict will end soon as nonsense and warned that regional security would either exist for everyone or for no one. Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Tehran, not Washington, will determine when the war ends. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and helps revive demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices regain positive traction following the previous day’s dramatic turnaround from the highest level since June 2022 amid worries about potential disruptions in supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors remain worried that a sustained increase in energy prices would drive up inflation and prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay rate cuts. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to stall the overnight retracement slide from a three-month peak and keeps the non-yielding Gold below the $5,200 mark.
The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair, as traders now look forward to the US inflation figures for a fresh impetus. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due for release on Wednesday and will be followed by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing Fed rate-cut expectations and drive the USD demand, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the Gold. The focus, however, remains on developments surrounding the US-Israel war with Iran.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold needs to break out through trading range barrier to back the case for additional gains
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been oscillating in a range over the past week or so and finding some support ahead of the rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The latter is pegged at around $5,010, which coincides with the lower end of the trading range and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned positive and extends above its signal line, with a growing positive histogram that suggests strengthening upside momentum after the recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index hovers just above 50, reinforcing the idea of emerging bullish pressure rather than overextended conditions.
Moreover, the near-term bias seems tilted mildly bullish as the Gold price holds above the $5,010 confluence, keeping the broader uptrend structure intact. Initial support appears at the recent swing area near $5,140, with a deeper floor at the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.
On the topside, immediate resistance comes in around the late-swing highs near $5,190, where prior rejection capped advances, followed by a higher barrier at $5,230 if buyers extend the move. A sustained hold above $5,140 would keep the bullish bias in play, while a break below $5,010 would weaken the upward outlook and shift focus back toward a corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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The Pound Sterling is down 0.5% to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar during the European trading session. The GBP/USD pair tumbles as the US Dollar outperforms its peers, with demand for safe-haven assets remaining firm, amid war in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
US Dollar Index touches 15-week high before fading into the close
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped about 0.2% on Monday after touching a 15-week high near 99.70 in the early session. The index gapped higher at the open before sellers stepped in, pushing price back toward the 99.00 area by the close and leaving a long upper wick on the daily candle. The reversal came after a sharp rally from the late-January lows close to 95.56, with the index gaining roughly four points in six weeks as safe-haven demand and shifting rate expectations lifted the Greenback.
The US Dollar (USD) has been the primary beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with traders viewing the US as relatively insulated from the supply shock given its energy independence. Rate cut expectations have been scaled back sharply over the past week; markets now price only one 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, likely in September, compared with two cuts expected before the conflict began. The Fed is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, and January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed several officials discussed the possibility of hiking rates if inflation stays above target.
Wednesday’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the week’s marquee event, with headline CPI expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. The energy price shock from the Hormuz closure began in the final days of February and is unlikely to be fully captured in this print, though any upside surprise would further cement the hawkish repricing. Friday’s slate is equally dense: January core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is forecast at 0.4% MoM and 3% YoY; preliminary fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 1.4% annualized; and the University of Michigan (UoM) March consumer sentiment index is forecast to drop to 55 from 56.6.
DXY daily chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.