Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.7% to 2% in December
Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in December
Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury firms under pressure as market momentum slows
Strategy (MSTR) and other corporate Bitcoin (BTC) treasuries remain under pressure as 2025’s volatile BTC performance – marked by sharp rallies and deep corrections – left annual returns flat to slightly negative. MSTR stock prices are down more than 60% from their year-highs, while peers that raised capital through Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) have also seen their stock prices erode toward their issuance levels.
Strategy: The largest BTC corporate holder
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is an American business intelligence (BI) and mobile software company that has treated BTC as its primary treasury reserve asset since August 2020.
As shown in the graph below, the firm has so far accumulated 671,268 BTC in its treasury reserves, valued at $60.04 billion, at an average price of $74,972 per BTC. This makes it the world’s largest corporate BTC treasury company, holding 3.19% of the total BTC supply of 21 million.
The company raises capital through convertible notes, preferred stock, and at-the-market equity offerings to purchase Bitcoin, even during price dips.
In addition to these capital-raising methods, the firm announced on November 30 the creation of a dedicated US Dollar reserve, funded entirely through at-the-market (ATM) issuance of new MSTR common stock.
The reserve is explicitly intended to cover:
- Cash dividends for Strategy’s preferred stock classes (around $700 million per year).
- Interest on its outstanding convertible bonds.
- Short-term liquidity needs in the event capital markets tighten.
This reserve is managed separately from the firm’s Bitcoin one, making Strategy a dual-reserve entity for the first time. As of December 22, Strategy has increased its USD reserve by $748 million to $2.19 billion, which is sufficient to cover approximately $700 million in annual preferred stock dividends for over three years.
Stock performance and challenges in 2025
Strategy’s stock price on the weekly chart has declined sharply from a yearly high of $457.22 recorded on July 14 to a low of $155.61 on December 1, down over 63%. MSTR is currently trading near $160, nearing its yearly lows and below its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $184.09.
There are some reasons for this correction in the MSTR price.
Bitcoin’s sharp rally to a record high of $126,199 on October 6, followed by a slide below the yearly open at $93,576 and now heading toward the yearly low at $74,508, has left 2025 performance flat to slightly negative, nearing year-end. Due to MSTR’s leverage exposure as a debt-financed Bitcoin bet, its stock price swings more than BTC’s, leading to significant losses for investors despite unchanged holdings.
In addition, Strategy funds its Bitcoin accumulation primarily through convertible debt, preferred stock, and at-the-market equity offerings rather than by selling BTC. As a result, much of its older debt is cheap. However, new borrowing and preferred shares carry much higher costs, driving up annual interest and dividend payments.
In addition, frequent share issuances dilute existing investors, so each share represents a smaller slice of the company and its Bitcoin holdings. Thus, in a strong yet volatile 2025, marked by pronounced quarterly swings in the Bitcoin market, this has become a problem for Strategy. The company can no longer raise cheap capital easily, while higher financing costs and dilution pressure cash flows and weigh on the stock price, even if Bitcoin does not fall sharply.
Potential index-exclusion risks, such as those from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), may remove companies whose balance sheets are dominated by Bitcoin (over 50% of assets) from key stock indices, thereby treating them more like investment vehicles than operating companies.
If Strategy is excluded, passive funds and ETFs that track these indices would be forced to sell MSTR shares, triggering billions in outflow. In addition, investors are likely to reallocate capital from high-volatility assets, such as leveraged Bitcoin proxies like MSTR, toward more stable assets. This development would reduce liquidity and institutional demand, potentially creating a downward spiral in MSTR stock prices.
Strategy shows weak NAV premium
The NAV premium metric measures how much the market values the company relative to the net value of its Bitcoin holdings and other assets, excluding liabilities. The current NAV premium reads -18.12% (0.82x), implying the market values MSTR at 82% of the value of its Bitcoin holdings per share (excluding other business value).
This suggests that investors are currently unwilling to pay a premium for Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin exposure, as concerns over dilution, rising debt costs, and Bitcoin’s sideways performance weigh on sentiment – making it harder for MSTR to raise low-cost capital for further BTC accumulation without pressuring shareholders.
However, during strong bull markets, this premium often ranged from 1.5x to 2.5x, allowing Strategy to raise capital cheaply and increase Bitcoin per share through accretive financing.
Copycats and the broader Treasury landscape
Copycats of Strategy continues to grow, with over 191 public companies holding BTC in their treasury reserves, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
Many of these public companies follow Strategy’s debt- and equity-funded buys, but mining firms like Marathon Digital (MARA) blend production with holding. Other companies, such as Metaplanet, have global appeal as inflation hedges.
As it happens with Strategy, the stock prices of these companies have fallen 50–80% from their 2025 highs, and NAV premiums are shrinking as Bitcoin underperforms expectations. See the example in the chart below.
A CryptoQuant report highlighted that Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital via PIPEs have experienced significant stock drawdowns, with share prices often gravitating toward their PIPE issuance levels.
The analyst concluded that a sustained Bitcoin rally is the only likely catalyst to prevent further declines in these stocks. Without it, many are poised to continue trending toward or below their PIPE prices.
What’s next for Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies?
Indeed, in 2025, Bitcoin’s volatile price action and broader consolidation led Strategy’s and most of its peers’ stock prices to crash sharply, as explained above.
CryptoQuant’s report mentioned that Strategy has made a tactical shift in its Bitcoin accumulation model, as Bitcoin may experience a weak 2026 after entering a bear market last month.
The analysis explained that the company no longer treats its Bitcoin exposure as untouchable across all market conditions. It is still the center of their long-term thesis. Said this, management now acknowledges that maintaining the BTC stack requires the flexibility to defend it with cash buffers, hedging and selective monetization in distressed scenarios.
The report concluded that MSTR appears to recognize a non-trivial probability of a deep or extended Bitcoin drawdown. Strategy’s shift from aggressive Bitcoin accumulation to a more conservative liquidity-focused treasury approach coincides with Bitcoin’s largest drawdown of 2025.
“A decline severe enough that nearly every major on-chain and technical indicator now signals the market has entered a bearish phase, as seen in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index dropping to zero (most bearish) for the first time since January 2022, when the previous bear market was starting,” says CryptoQuant analyst.
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC struggles below $90,000 as ETF outflows persist and options expiry looms
Bitcoin (BTC) steadies around $87,700 at the time of writing on Thursday after failing to reclaim a key psychological level earlier this week. Institutional demand continues to weaken as spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded their fifth consecutive day of withdrawals. Traders should remain cautious ahead of Friday’s large options expiry, which could bring fresh volatility and direction to the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Bitcoin’s institutional demand continues to fade
Institutional demand has continued to weaken so far this week. SoSoValue data show that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $175.29 million on Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals since December 18. If these outflows continue and intensify, the Bitcoin price could see further correction.
Calm before the storm
Derbit data shows that on Friday, $23.47 billion in BTC option contracts are set to expire. BTC derivatives traders are positioning heavily around higher strike prices, with call open interest significantly outweighing puts, as indicated by the low put/call ratio of 0.35, signalling a broadly bullish bias.
In addition, the max pain price of $95,000 suggests that option sellers would benefit most if BTC gravitates toward this level by expiry, as the most contracts would expire worthless there.
QCP Capital’s report this week highlighted that although leveraged positioning has come down, the contraction in market depth means squeeze risk in either direction remains elevated.
“Historically, BTC has tended to experience 5 to 7% swings during the Christmas period, a pattern often linked to year-end options expiries rather than fresh fundamental catalysts,” said QCP’s analyst.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies after rejection from key resistance
Bitcoin price was retested at the psychological $90,000 level on Monday and declined slightly the following day. On Wednesday, BTC stabilized at around $87,000. As of Thursday, BTC hovers around $87,700.
If BTC continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward the key support at $85,569.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 43, below its neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum is gaining traction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator showed a bullish crossover last week; however, the falling green histogram bars indicate fading bullish momentum.
On the other hand, if BTC closes above the $90,000, it could extend the recovery toward the next resistance at $94,253.
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
Worldcoin Price Forecast: WLD eyes breakout as whale buying and trading volume hit yearly highs
Worldcoin (WLD) hovers around $0.49 at the time of writing on Thursday, consolidating within a falling wedge pattern. Lookonchain data shows that a wallet linked to Multicoin Capital bought 60 million WLD tokens on Thursday. Meanwhile, bullish momentum is building, as on-chain data show whale accumulation and rising trading volume, hinting at an upside move ahead.
Multicoin Capital link wallet buys 60 million WLD tokens
Lookonchain data on Thursday show that a wallet linked to Multicoin Capital, a thesis-driven investment firm, has spent 30 million USDC stablecoin to buy 60 million Worldcoin tokens at an average price of $0.50 through an over-the-counter (OTC), highlighting strong whale interest.
Worldcoin’s on-chain data shows bullish bias
Santiment data indicate that the WLD ecosystem’s trading volume (the aggregate trading volume generated by all exchange applications on the chain) reached $1.46 billion on Wednesday, the highest yearly level and trading volume not seen since July 2024. This volume rise indicates a surge in traders’ interest and liquidity in Worldcoin, boosting its bullish outlook.
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In addition, Santiment’s Supply Distribution data show that certain whales are buying WLD at recent price dips.
The metric indicates that whales holding between 10 million and 100 million WLD tokens (blue line) and 1 million and 10 million WLD tokens (yellow line) have accumulated a total of 150.59 million WLD tokens from Sunday to Thursday. This indicates that the whales seized the opportunity and accumulated Worldcoin at a discount.
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Worldcoin Price Forecast: WLD trades within the falling wedge pattern
Worldcoin price has been trading within a falling wedge (drawn by connecting multiple highs and lows with two trendlines) for over a month. At the time of writing on Thursday, WLD is trading higher at around $0.49.
If WLD breaks and closes above the falling wedge, it could extend the rally toward the daily resistance at $0.56. A successful close above this could extend additional gains toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 36, pointing upward toward its neutral level of 50, indicating fading bearish momentum. However, for the bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are converging, indicating indecision among traders.
On the other hand, if WLD faces a correction, it could extend the decline toward the December 18 low of $0.47.
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) climbed from previous -10.1% to 9.5% in November
Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Toncoin Price Forecast: TON bullish breakout confirmed as sentiment improves
Toncoin (TON) price is trading above $1.51 on Thursday after closing above the falling wedge pattern, which favours bulls. On-chain and derivatives data show a bullish bias, with large whale orders, rising bullish bets among traders, and buy-side dominance. On the technical side, momentum indicators suggest fading bearish strength, hinting at an upside move in the coming days.
Toncoin’s on-chain and derivatives data suggest improving sentiment
CryptoQuant’s summary data point to a bullish outlook, as Toncoin’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders, cooling conditions, and buy dominance. All these factors signal an improving sentiment among traders, hinting at a potential rally in the upcoming days.
On the derivatives side, CoinGlass’s long-to-short ratio for Toncoin reads 1.14 on Thursday, nearing the monthly high. The ratio above one suggests bullish sentiment in the market, as traders are betting on the TON price to rally.
Toncoin Price Forecast: TON
Toncoin price closed above the falling wedge pattern (formed by connecting multiple highs and lows with two trendlines) on Wednesday. As of Thursday, TON is trading above $1.51.
If TON continues its upward trend, it could extend the rally toward the December 10 high of $1.70.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 44, pointing upward toward the neutral level of 50, indicating fading bearish momentum. For the bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI must move above its neutral level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bullish crossover on Tuesday, further supporting the positive outlook.
On the other hand, if TON faces a correction, it could extend the decline toward the daily support at $1.43.
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥-1234.8B in December 19 from previous ¥528.3B
Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥528.3B to ¥-1B in December 19
Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.