Gold rebounds from the $4,633-$4,632 area, a four-day trough touched during the Asian session on Monday, but stays in nehative territory at around $4,700. Rising crude Oil prices after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in the first round of negotiations feed into global inflation fears and make it difficult for Gold to gather bullish momentum.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro hesitates around 0.8700 amid cautious markets
EUR/USD remains trapped within a tight range between 0.8695 and 0.8725.
Higher Oil prices are keeping Euro upside attempts limited on Monday.
On Wednesday, BoE’s Bailey and ECB’s lagarde might give a fresh impulse to the pair.
The Euro (EUR) shows a netvous consolidation around the 0.8700 line against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday. Market sentiment has deteriorated following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran. Still, the two-week ceasefire remains in place, fuelling hopes of further negotiations and keeping market volatility at relatively low levels so far.
Investors, however, have been reluctant to place large Euro bets during Monday’s Asian and early European sessions, which leaves the EUR/GBP pair looking for direction within a 25-pip range. The doji candles in the daily calendar highlight a hesitant market.
The higher oil prices amid the US vow to block the Strait of Hormuz are likely to keep Euro upside attempts limited. On Wednesday, the speeches by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde might give a fresh impulse to the pair.
Technical Analysis
From a technical point of view, the EUR/GBP maintains a mild bullish bias, yet with momentum fading. The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edges up right above the zero line, showing a lack of a clear bias.
Bulls have been capped at 0.8722 on Monday, closing the way towards the April highs in the 0.8740 area. Further up, the year-to-date high awaits at 0.8789, although the pair is likely to need additional impetus to approach those levels
On the downside, the confluence of Friday’s lows and the ascending trendline from mid-March lows, now around 0.8705, is likely to challenge bears ahead of the April 8 low, at 0.8687. Further down, the March 24 and 26 lows, near 0.8635, might attract sellers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.21% | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.07% | -0.20% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.12% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.02% | 0.12% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.01% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
WTI Price Forecast: Rallies to $98 as Trump aims to blockade Hormuz
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.6% higher to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price rises after a warning from United States (US) President Donald Trump, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has instructed the navy to blockade “any or all ships trying to enter or leave” the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. This has further raised concerns over the global energy supply.
US President Trump’s threats to block the Hormuz came after talks between Iran and US Vice President (VP) JD Vance failed due to Tehran’s refusal to drop its nuclear ambitions.
In addition, US President Trump has also ordered the navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran”, adding that “no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas”.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the “Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET” (14:00 GMT).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced that it has restored the full pumping capacity of its East-West pipeline to seven million barrels a day (bpd), rehabilitating a vital link for oil exports via the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported.
WTI technical analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at around $98, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $93.41. The distance from this rising EMA suggests underlying trend support remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.23 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is moderating rather than reversing.
On the downside, the first meaningful support aligns with the 20-day EMA near $93.41, where buyers would be expected to emerge on a corrective pullback while the broader uptrend stays in place. A daily close below this moving average would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose deeper retracements, whereas holding above it keeps the door open for renewed attempts to extend the advance toward higher highs at around $106.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
US President Trump considers limited strikes on Iran after talks collapse – WSJ
Citing officials and people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday that White House advisers are considering resuming limited military strikes in Iran along with the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break a deadlock in peace talks.
Additional takeaways
Trump could also resume a full-fledged bombing campaign, though officials said that was less likely given the prospect of further destabilizing the region and the president’s aversion to prolonged military conflicts.
He could also seek a more temporary blockade while he pressures allies to take responsibility for a prolonged military escort mission through the strait in the future.
Government officials, crypto leaders rally behind CLARITY Act passage ahead of Congress’s resumption
US government officials and leading crypto industry figures are intensifying calls for Congress to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, as lawmakers prepare to resume full legislative activity next week.
The CLARITY bill seeks to clarify oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It also includes provisions to limit regulatory overreach on blockchain networks.
Despite clearing the House, the bill has stalled in the Senate Banking Committee amid ongoing negotiations over stablecoin regulation and related provisions. However, renewed backing from government leaders has revived expectations that the legislation could be passed in the coming months.
Government officials, crypto leaders push for CLARITY bill passage
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been among the most vocal proponents in recent days, urging lawmakers to move the bill forward.
Bessent previously warned that regulatory uncertainty pushed innovation to jurisdictions such as Abu Dhabi and Singapore. He also framed the CLARITY Act as a necessary complement to the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by President Donald Trump last year.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, echoed the need for urgency in an X post, noting that this is “our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030. We can’t afford to surrender America’s financial future.”
“This is the most pro-digital asset administration in United States history. It’s the right time to pass the Clarity Act. If not now, then when,” she wrote.
David Sacks, a member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, framed the CLARITY Act as a continuation of recent US digital asset policy efforts, following last year’s stablecoin legislation.
“The GENIUS Act, signed by President Trump last year, established US leadership on stablecoins. The CLARITY Act, also known as market structure legislation, would do the same for all other digital assets by providing clear rules of the road. Secretary Bessent is right: the time to act is now. Senate Banking, and then the full Senate, should pass market structure,” Sacks wrote in an X post.
Support for the legislation has also strengthened across the crypto sector, signaling a shift from earlier divisions over key provisions such as stablecoin yields and decentralized finance safeguards.
Industry leaders such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen and General Partner Chris Dixon have called for the bill’s passage.
Advocates across government and key industries view the CLARITY Act as central to fulfilling the Trump administration’s ambition to position the US as a global hub for digital assets.
Ethereum Price Forecast: Increased derivatives demand spurred ETH’s rise after US-Iran ceasefire
Ethereum price today: $2,230
- Ethereum’s open interest spiked by $2.2 billion following the US-Iran ceasefire.
- Buyers are dominating the ETH futures market following a sustained upward tilt in the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio.
- ETH has recovered the $2,210 level after bouncing off the 50-day EMA.
Ethereum (ETH) saw major improvements across key onchain metrics after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement on Tuesday, according to a CryptoQuant analysis. The top altcoin rose by 6% within 24 hours following the move, its largest single-day gain in more than a month.
In a report late Thursday, the crypto analytics firm highlighted that USD-denominated open interest for ETH jumped by $2.2 billion, approaching levels last seen nearly a month ago.
“Crucially, coin-denominated open interest (OI) also increased significantly […] ruling out short liquidations as the primary driver and confirming that traders are opening net new long positions,” wrote CryptoQuant analysts.
The report also noted a sustained upward tilt in Ethereum’s Taker Buy-Sell Ratio, indicating that buyers are dominating the top altcoin’s perpetual futures market.
The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio measures the difference in trading volume between buyers and sellers in perpetual futures markets.
A similar positioning is observed among Bitcoin (BTC) traders, suggesting they expect a steady improvement in macro conditions, “at least from the short-term,” the analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, the ETH Coinbase Premium Index also flipped positive, showing an increase in US demand. “If the ceasefire holds and no escalatory news emerges over the next two weeks, the Coinbase premium could sustain positive territory, reinforcing the bullish price trajectory,” the report stated.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH holds above $2,210 after 50-day EMA bounce
Ethereum saw $54.4 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, driven by $34.5 million in short liquidations, per Coinglass data.
On the daily chart, ETH trades at $2,234, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as price holds above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $2,128 and $2,156, respectively. This positioning suggests dip-buying interest on pullbacks, even as the pair approaches a dense resistance band defined first by the 100-day EMA at $2,386 and then by a horizontal barrier at $2,388.
Momentum remains supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 61 indicating a firm positive tone, though the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) hovering in overbought territory could spur a short-term pause in price growth.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of $2,210, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $2,156 and the 20-day EMA at $2,128, with a deeper cushion emerging at $2,108. A break below this cluster would expose $1,909 and then $1,741 as the next notable demand areas.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the convergence of the 100-day EMA and the horizontal cap at $2,388. A sustained move above this zone would open the way toward $2,746.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
China: Inflation pressures build with energy – ING
ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s CPI inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year after Lunar New Year, while PPI turned positive for the first time since 2022. The report highlights rising energy and transportation fuel costs, suggesting further upside for inflation and a gradual shift away from entrenched deflationary expectations in China.
Energy-driven price pressures support reflation
“The substantive price drops are in line with China’s typical seasonality around the Lunar New Year holiday. More importantly for the months ahead, we are starting to see the impact of higher energy prices in the data. The subcategory for transportation fuel costs surged 10.0% MoM in March, even as gasoline prices have risen much less than crude oil prices in China. This surge culminated in a YoY spike to 3.4%, after coming in at -9.7% YoY in the first two months of the year. Further upside looks likely as energy prices stay elevated.”
“Producer price index inflation bounced back solidly into positive territory in March, ending a 41-month streak of deflation. PPI inflation rose to 0.5% YoY in March, slightly higher than market expectations and slightly lower than our forecast.”
“As we’ve discussed in recent months’ updates, the other key categories driving PPI recovery are non-ferrous metals mining (36.4%) and smelting and processing (22.4%), which continued to see PPI move higher on the month. Higher producer prices should eventually translate to reflationary momentum across the economy, which could help in the efforts to crack down on involution-type price competition.”
“China has been locked in deflationary expectations for the past several years, with CPI inflation ending the last 3 years at 0.2% YoY or lower.”
“All these factors could be at risk for reversal this year.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
World Liberty Financial rebuts WLFI Markets’ lending concerns amid rising scrutiny
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has pushed back against recent criticism surrounding its borrowing activity on the WLFI Markets decentralized finance platform.
WLFI pushes back on liquidation risk claims
In a late Thursday X post, the project addressed concerns about its lending position, outlining the structure of its exposure and dismissing fears of potential liquidation.
“We are one of the largest suppliers and borrowers on WLFI Markets. Yes, we supplied WLFI as collateral and borrowed stablecoins. No, we are nowhere near liquidation — and frankly, even if markets moved dramatically against us, we’d simply supply more collateral,” the team stated.
WLFI stated that it is a key participant within the protocol, describing its role as an “anchor borrower” that supports overall platform activity. According to the statement, this activity contributes to yield generation for other users.
“By being the anchor borrower, we’re generating the yield that makes WLFI Markets compelling for everyone else,” WLFI added.
The team also pointed to performance metrics that support the sustainability of its strategy, including an annual revenue run rate of $159.5 million tied to its USD1 stablecoin. The project added that it has conducted open-market buybacks exceeding 435 million WLFI tokens, worth $65.58 million over the past six months.
The response follows scrutiny after Arkham’s on-chain data highlighted the scale of WLFI’s borrowing position. Critics have raised concerns about potential risks to lenders, citing limited token liquidity and a high concentration of collateral within the platform.
Questions have also surfaced regarding repayment of WLFI’s loans and the movement of borrowed stablecoins, particularly in the event of significant market volatility.
The controversy has further drawn renewed attention to longer-standing concerns among early token holders. About 75% of the WLFI token supply has remained locked under initial distribution terms.
In response, World Liberty Financial confirmed that it will introduce a governance proposal to address token unlocks. The proposal, expected to be published on the project’s forum next week, will seek community input before a formal vote.
It is expected to outline a structured, long-term vesting schedule for early retail participants, rather than a full immediate unlock, to balance liquidity considerations and market stability.
Market sentiment around the token has weakened amid the ongoing debate. WLFI declined 14% over the past 24 hours to $0.0815, wiping roughly $300 million from its market cap.
Malaysia: Solid GDP and contained inflation – DBS
DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand. Headline inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.7% in March, with oil-driven pressures cushioned by fiscal subsidies.
AI tailwinds and mild price pressures
“Malaysia’s incoming data are likely to reflect resilient economic growth and contained inflation in 1Q26, despite the Middle East shock since February 27.”
“We expect robust advance GDP growth estimate of 5.5% yoy in 1Q26, albeit lower than 6.3% yoy in 4Q25.”
“Growth was likely supported by continued strength in export-oriented electrical & electronics manufacturing, bolstered by global AI tailwinds, as well as supportive domestic demand driven by ongoing construction and investment momentum, while services expanded robustly amid these spillovers, alongside sustained household spending.”
“We anticipate headline inflation to rise but remain contained at 1.7% yoy in March, from 1.4% yoy in February.”
“This reflected some upside pressures from food prices due to festive-related spending, and energy prices following the spike in global oil prices stemming from the Iran war, although the overall impact is mitigated by fiscal subsidies.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
CNY: Trade normalization and growth risks – TD Securities
TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.
Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook
“After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports.”
“Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.”
“As input costs rise, we may see a slowdown in production which may be a drag on China’s exports growth in the near term.”
“Industrial production is likely to hold steady in Mar but rising input costs could change the calculus for firms’ output plans soon.”
“Retail sales may underwhelm as consumers brought forward their spending last month due to the CNY holidays and the early rollout of the consumer trade in prog subsidies.GDP should rise to 4.8% y/y in Q1 given strong exports and mfg over the qtr.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)