Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple extend their recovery on Friday as improving risk sentiment and strengthening technical indicators support the broader cryptocurrency market. BTC reclaims the $61,300 level after rebounding from a 21-month low earlier this week, while ETH holds firm near $1,700 following a sharp two-day recovery.
United States Dollar Index faces pressure as traders reconsider hawkish Fed bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally down to near 100.80 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The US Dollar has come under pressure as traders reconsider hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.09% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.25% | 0.15% | -0.00% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.28% | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday.
Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets as the US NFP data missed expectations by a wide margin. In June, the US economy created 57K fresh jobs, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2% against the estimates and the previous reading of 4.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, rose by 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, faster than the previous reading of 3.4%.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June, which will be released on Monday. Investors will pay close attention to the data, as the Service PMI, which reflects activities in the services sector, accounts for two-thirds of the economy.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.8) in June
EUR/USD leaves behind two daily pullbacks in a row and advances to multi-day peaks near 1.1470 on Thursday, partially offsetting the sharp decline in place since June. The pair’s decline follows the intense retracement in the US Dollar, which is particularly sponsored by disheartening prints from June’s Payrolls and the sharp sell-off in USD/JPY. The US markets will be closed on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists below 0.7000
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report pushed back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. However, AUD/USD remains confined within a one-week trading range, with technical indicators pointing to limited upside momentum.
At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades around 0.6918 after hitting an intraday high of 0.6943, its highest level since June 23.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the US economy added just 57K jobs in June, well below market expectations of 110K. Meanwhile, May’s payrolls were revised down to 129K from the previously reported 172K.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is attempting to establish support above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6865. Even so, the near-term technical picture remains bearish, with the pair posting a series of lower highs and lower lows since peaking at 0.7277 in early May while trading below the 100-day SMA at 0.7074.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the psychological 0.7000 level. A break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7074. Only a sustained move above this resistance zone would ease the bearish pressure and open the door for a more constructive recovery phase.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to around 37 after slipping into oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, although the fading red histogram suggests downside momentum is easing. Even so, there are few signs of a meaningful trend reversal, indicating that any rebounds are likely to remain shallow while AUD/USD stays below the 0.7000 region.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.47% | -0.52% | -0.95% | -0.25% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.73% | |
| EUR | 0.47% | -0.05% | -0.48% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.07% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.52% | 0.05% | -0.43% | 0.24% | 0.16% | 0.14% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | 0.95% | 0.48% | 0.43% | 0.68% | 0.59% | 0.50% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.25% | -0.21% | -0.24% | -0.68% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.47% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.59% | 0.10% | -0.04% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.43% | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.50% | 0.15% | 0.04% | -0.32% | |
| CHF | 0.73% | 0.25% | 0.20% | -0.22% | 0.47% | 0.37% | 0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-1.8%) in May
EUR/USD gains traction and surpasses the 1.1450 mark, reaching a fresh multi-day peak on Thursday, amid a marked correction in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the pair leaves behind two consecutive daily pullbacks as investors continue to gauge the latest US NFP data.
RBNZ: Policy pace and July hike – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.50% at next week’s meeting, keeping policy too accommodative with the cash rate still below neutral. Newnaha anticipates further hikes in September and sees Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation running above RBNZ forecasts, arguing against delaying the start of the tightening cycle.
Hiking now but at measured pace
“TD forecasts the RBNZ to hike the OCR 25bps to 2.50% at next week’s meeting, but it could signal patience around how quickly it intends to lift the cash rate towards neutral. This should cap any uptick in yields on hike headlines while initial NZD strength is unlikely to be outsized.”
“While we concede recent oil moves may see the RBNZ hike at a slower pace than our forecast(Jul, Sep, Dec and Feb to 3.25%), we stick with our call for a July hike.”
“A 25bps hike at the July meeting would still have monetary policy too accommodative. The cash rate is currently around 75-100bps below neutral.”
“Taking 50bps of those cuts back over July & Sep is prudent considering markets were debating if the RBNZ had an inflation problem brewing before the US/Iran war.”
“Of course the Bank may decide to wait till Sep to begin hiking. However, we struggle to see the catalyst for hiking then when conditions are already loose now and will likely loosen further if it decides to wait another two months to calibrate policy.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Nonfarm Payrolls set to grow by over 100K in June, reinforcing bets of upcoming Fed rate hikes
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
With investors pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook with the new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm, the underlying details of the employment report could influence the timing of a possible interest rate increase.
Payroll data is among the indicators that generally trigger a significant market reaction. Still, this time, with all eyes on the inflation front, only a dismal print could hurt the US Dollar in a meaningful way.
What to expect from the Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 110K following three consecutive months of surprisingly strong increases. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), is projected to edge higher to 3.5% from 3.4% in May.
TD Securities analysts note that they expect NFP to rise at a softer pace than what markets expect.
“We expect June payrolls to moderate to 80k (55k private, 25k government) after strong early‑2026 gains. Job growth broadened beyond healthcare, led by trade/transport and leisure, but should cool this month. Local governments may stay firm on World Cup effects. We see the Unemployment Rate edging down to 4.2% as participation dips. AHE likely moderated to 0.2% m/m (3.5% y/y),” they add.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private sector employment in the US grew by 98K in June. This print followed the 122K increase recorded in May and came in below the market expectation of 113K.
Similarly, National Bank of Canada Senior Economist Jocelyn Paquet forecasts a 90K increase in NFP and explain:
“Based on the weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global’s flash composite PMI, job creation likely remained fairly robust during the month, although not as robust as what we had been accustomed to between February and May. Layoffs, for their part, may have increased slightly, judging by the rise in initial jobless claims recorded between the May and June survey periods. These two factors combined should, in our view, result in an increase of 90K in nonfarm payrolls.”
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
How will the US May Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
Although crude Oil prices came down to levels seen since pre-US-Iran conflict, investors remain concerned over global inflation remaining sticky, mainly due to heightened costs of consumer electronics via AI-driven hardware demand. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) has been outperforming its major rivals, supported by growing expectations for a tighter Fed policy.
Hammack flags broad inflation, keeps rate hike option alive
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a moderately hawkish message with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.4/10.
This is slightly softer relative to the historical average of 7/10 but still signals a tightening bias. By stressing that the job market is “right around full employment” and that growth “looks good,” while warning that “inflation is still too high” and that rate hikes may need to be considered, the speech underscores a willingness to tighten policy despite concerns about the broader economy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 34% probability of the Fed raising the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as early as July, compared to a 6% chance seen in early June. Moreover, the probability of at least two rate increases by the end of 2026 now sits slightly above 40%.
Another positive surprise of 130K or higher in the headline NFP could feed into July rate hike projections and fuel another leg higher in the USD. In this scenario, EUR/USD could remain under bearish pressure and extend its downtrend in the near term.
On the other hand, a significantly disappointing print below 70K could trigger an upward correction in the pair. However, a steady bullish reversal is unlikely to materialize unless Fed policymakers shift their tone and put more emphasis on labor market conditions rather than the inflation outlook.
Given three consecutive months of very strong prints, however, a single NFP miss is likely to be overlooked, keeping any potential rebound in EUR/USD short-lived.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook doesn’t point to oversold conditions and suggests that the bearish bias stays intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart remains below 40 after recovering from oversold territory and the pair trades slightly above the lower arm of the Bollinger Band.”
“On the downside, 1.1320-1.1280 (lower arm of the Bollinger Band, static level) forms the first support ahead of 1.1160 (static level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, static level).”
“Looking north, a strong resistance area could be spotted at the 1.1485-1.1500 region (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), round level) before 1.1600 (round level, 50-day SMA) and 1.1650-1.1660 (200-day SMA, descending trend line, 100-day SMA).”
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Euro nudges higher above 1.1350 on softer Fed stance, traders await US jobs data
The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) on less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh. Traders will closely monitor the US jobs data for June later on Thursday.
Fed’s Warsh, on Wednesday at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, declined to give any signal as to what the central bank may do at its July policy meeting but did note that inflation was too elevated. He emphasized commitment to central bank independence and a 2% inflation target.
Warsh reiterated his preference for the central bank to scale back its bond portfolio, while highlighting that any such step will only be made after extensive public preparation.
“At a minimum, his comments provided no fuel for speculation on a near-term July rate hike, and in our view suggest the new Fed chair – while keeping all options open meeting by meeting – does not currently see cause for an immediate hike,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
On the other hand, signs of softer inflation in the Eurozone could prompt traders to reduce bets on the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the shared currency. Eurozone inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), fell to 2.8% YoY in June from 3.2% in May, Eurostat showed on Wednesday. This figure came in softer than the market expectation of 3.0%.
Meanwhile, the core HICP inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, slowed to 2.4% YoY in June from 2.6% in the previous reading, below the market consensus of 2.6%.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
BoC’s Macklem: Inflation is clearly above target
Speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that Canada’s economy remains soft, while inflation is still running clearly above target.
Key takeaways:
In Canada, the economy is soft.
Inflation clearly above target.
We are at the bottom end of neutral range, about the right level to keep inflation contained.
We’ve got to be humble amid uncertainty.
If situation changes, we are prepared to take action.”
AI investment in the US leads to headwinds and competitive pressure.
Open question when AI-driven disinflation kicks in.
In the short term, we saw an increase in computer prices.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.31% | 0.14% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.26% | -0.39% | -0.19% | -0.06% | -0.27% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.26% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.39% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.19% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.13% | -0.09% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.31% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.30% | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | 0.27% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | 0.09% | -0.18% | -0.28% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Warsh stays on message as inflation remains the Fed’s top priority
At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh largely followed the script, offering little to change the market’s current view on monetary policy. He said inflation risks and short-term inflation expectations had eased in recent weeks, but he reiterated that prices remain too high and stressed that the central bank remains steadfast in its commitment to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.
Warsh also offered a mostly optimistic view on the US economy, saying labour market conditions were stable and the outlook for growth may have improved. He sounded optimistic about artificial intelligence, saying the US is well-placed to gain from the technology but warning it was too soon to know whether AI would ultimately prove inflationary or disinflationary.
On the institutional front, the Fed Chair reiterated the independence of the central bank and confirmed that the ongoing review of its communications framework and policy tools remains on track. He also reaffirmed his longstanding preference for interest rates to be the Fed’s main policy tool, while indicating that any future adjustments to balance sheet policy would be carefully considered and clearly communicated.
Overall, the comments did not provide any new information but reaffirmed last week’s hawkish policy message. The Fed remains optimistic on the medium-term outlook for the US economy even as the global backdrop has grown more uncertain. But price stability remains the “overriding priority” for the Fed.