After rising more than 3% on Thursday, Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized around the $4,200 mark in the American session on Friday. The US dollar seesaws between gains and losses, but remains within familiar levels as investors remain skeptical yet hopeful about a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions up to $-205.6K from previous $-220.8K
After rising more than 3% on Thursday, Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized around the $4,200 mark in the American session on Friday. The US dollar seesaws between gains and losses, but remains within familiar levels as investors remain skeptical yet hopeful about a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $176K to $173.8K
After rising more than 3% on Thursday, Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized around the $4,200 mark in the American session on Friday. The US dollar seesaws between gains and losses, but remains within familiar levels as investors remain skeptical yet hopeful about a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
US Senior Official: Iran deal secures Hormuz reopening, nuclear material
A senior administration official said on Friday that the Iran deal will guarantee long-term peace in the region. The agreement would achieve core US objectives and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official said that the US would get enriched nuclear material and include an inspection regime.
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: IRAN DEAL ACCOMPLISHES CORE U.S. OBJECTIVES
IRAN DEAL REOPENS STRAIT OF HORMUZ – OFFICIAL
U.S. TO GET ENRICHED MATERIAL UNDER IRAN DEAL
IRAN DEAL GUARANTEES LONG-TERM PEACE IN REGION
IRAN DEAL INCLUDES INSPECTION REGIME
IF IRAN COMPLIES WILL BE REWARDED ECONOMICALLY
BENEFITS FOR IRAN ACCRUE IF THEY ACTUALLY DELIVER
U.S. EXPECTS TO SIGN AGREEMENT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS
DRAFT AGREEMENT ALSO LIFTS U.S. BLOCKADE AND LEADS TO DISMANTLEMENT OF IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
IRANIANS DON’T GET ANYTHING UPON SIGNING AGREEMENT
NOT QUITE AT FINISH LINE YET BUT VERY CLOSE
IRAN DEAL IS SPECIFIC ABOUT OPENING STRAIT AND LIFTING OF BLOCKADE AND MOVING OF ENRICHED MATERIAL
THE MORE IRANIANS PERFORM, THE MORE THEY CAN GET
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SANCTIONS RELIEF BASED ON HOW IRAN PERFORMS
U.S. HAS SEEN SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN TEXT OF AGREEMENT
AGREEMENT REACHED ON SPECIFICITY OVER DESTRUCTION AND REMOVAL OF ENRICHED MATERIAL
REGIONAL PEACE AGREEMENT IS BROAD
CONFIDENT ISRAELIS WILL GET ON BOARD
SOME IRANIANS DON’T LOVE THIS DEAL
WE THINK THAT DISSENT IS QUITE MINIMAL
THERE’S JUST A LOT OF MISTRUST
WHEN ISRAEL SEES FULL TERMS OF DEAL THEY WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH THAT
DEAL IS A FIRST AND IMPORTANT STEP TOWARD ENSURING IRANIANS DO NOT GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON
WE HAVE A TEXT IN PLACE THAT IRAN AND U.S. BOTH LIKE
IRAN IS COMMITTING TO NEVER DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPON
U.S. WILL HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO ENFORCE THAT
WE ENVISION 60-DAY TECHNICAL NEGOTIATION
IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER IS REPORTEDLY COMFORTABLE WITH WHERE WE ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS
EUROPE HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AS SITE FOR SIGNING BUT NO DECISION YET
U.S., IRAN SET UP A PROCESS TO BUILD TRUST, BRING AGREEMENT TO A CLOSE
United Kingdom: Growth resilience but softer inflation – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says the UK economy is tracking close to the Bank of England’s Scenario A, with stronger‑than‑expected early‑2026 GDP but a cooling labour market and easing price pressures. GDP is seen around 1% in 2026–27, while CPI is projected slightly below Scenario A and potentially under the 2% target at longer horizons.
Scenario A path for growth and CPI
“The economy – at least on the surface – has been stronger than the Bank assumed. GDP growth, to start the year, was stronger than the Bank anticipated. But the labour market has softened a touch, relative to the Bank’s expectations.”
“Relative to the MPC’s scenarios, we see GDP growth tracking closer to Scenario A, with output a little more resilient on the back of stronger catch up in Q1-26. Q2-26 GDP growth looks poised to push closer to 0.1-0.2% q-o-q. And annual GDP growth this year looks set to be at the BoE staff projection of 0.9%, with growth likely to push upwards of 1%.”
“Based on current market conditions, GDP growth is expected to push a little past all three Bank scenario projections this year. Incorporating the stronger Q1-26, we would expect Bank projections, under current market conditions, to have increased to 1% (Scenario A: 0.8%). GDP growth in year 2 (2027), we expect, would also stay steady at 1% – broadly consistent with the Bank’s Scenario A & B.”
“On inflation, based on current market conditions, we would expect CPI to remain slightly below the Bank’s Scenario A projections. If we applied the same conditioning assumptions to Scenario B, headline CPI would likely sit 0.1pp to 0.15pp below the Bank’s projections at both the two-year and three-year forecast horizons – pushing headline CPI below the Bank’s 2% target.”
“Based on current market pricing and recent outturns, the UK economic trajectory remains closest to the Bank’s Scenario A.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Japanese Yen holds as traders switch focus to BoJ hike and Warsh’s first Fed meeting
The USD/JPY pair trades near the 160.20 region on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains slightly under pressure, while investors prepare for a key central bank week featuring the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy decision and Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting as Chair.
The Yen continues to struggle despite rising expectations that the BoJ could raise interest rates next week. However, the move may not be enough to provide sustained support for the Yen if the BoJ avoids providing strong guidance on further tightening.
The upcoming FOMC meeting will be closely watched as newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the reins, with traders focusing on the statement, projections, and press conference for signs of whether the Fed could maintain a hawkish stance later this year.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 160.21. The pair is holding above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.72, but it remains capped just under the 20-period SMA near 160.35, keeping the near-term tone broadly neutral with a slight topside constraint. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 underscores this consolidative stance, suggesting waning upside momentum after the recent pullback.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 160.34, with the 20-period SMA at 160.35 and a higher horizontal barrier at 160.38 forming a tight supply zone that bulls must clear to reopen a stronger advance. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 160.17, ahead of a firmer floor at 159.96, while the 100-period SMA at 159.72 is positioned as a deeper dynamic support level in case selling pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Canada Capacity Utilization remains unchanged at 78.5% in 1Q
,Gold recovers modest intraday losses, and turns flat during the first half of the European session, though it remains below the daily peak. Despite uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal, a steadier mood fails to help the US Dollar in preserving its gains. This is seen as a key factor offering some support to the commodity.
ECB’s Kocher: Too early to predict July’s interest rate decision
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher stated in the European trade on Friday that it is too early to discuss what the central bank will do in the July meeting.
Remarks
There are six weeks until the next rate-setting meeting at the end of July.
A lot can happen in that time. Who knows what developments we will have.
Market reaction
No immediate response by the Euro (EUR), following ECB Kocher’s remarks. During press time, EUR/USD is down 0.17% to near 1.1560.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Gold weakens as Iran deal uncertainty and hawkish Fed stance support USD
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $4,246-$4,247 region on Thursday, stalling the previous day’s solid recovery move from its lowest level since November 2025. The US and Iran continue to send mixed and contradictory signals regarding a potential peace deal. This helps revive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, exerts some downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a deal had been reached with Iran and the final document could be signed soon, perhaps even over the weekend. The optimism, however, fades rather quickly as Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement. Furthermore, reports suggest that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not agreed to the proposed US peace deal. Adding to this, Iran’s Foreign Ministry reportedly said that key issues, including Hormuz access and frozen funds, remain unresolved, per Fars.
Meanwhile, Iranian forces blocked a tanker from transiting through the strategic waterway without coordination, underscoring uncertainty over Iran’s position. Adding to this, Fox News reported that US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and trigger a modest recovery in Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns. This comes amid signs of re-accelerating inflation in the US, backing the case for higher-for-longer interest rates.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released this week pointed to re-accelerating inflation, reaffirming bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. This further acts as a tailwind for the Greenback and weighs on the Gold. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register heavy losses for the second consecutive week.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold’s technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for deeper losses
From a technical perspective, the precious metal retains a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, Friday’s failure near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of downfall from the April monthly swing high suggests that the overnight recovery might still be categorized as a short-covering move.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with the line below its signal and a still-negative histogram. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, both of which hint that downside pressure persists despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. around $4,229, followed by the 38.2% level near $4,355. Higher up, the 200-day SMA at about $4,450 and the adjacent 50% retracement at roughly $4,456 form a stronger cap, before the 61.8% level at $4,558 and the 78.6% retracement at $4,703 open the way toward the $4,887 cycle high. On the downside, the key support to watch is the recent swing low around $4,026, where a break would signal scope for a deeper corrective leg.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
New Zealand Business NZ PMI down to 49.9 in May from previous 50.5
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.